Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY... PRODUCING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINDS AROUND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE PRODUCING
SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WEST PIEDMONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 90S... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST WELL PAST DARK. SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE... ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE
FROM THE FOOTHILLS...AND ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS...AND A LESSER THREAT OF
NICKEL HAIL. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD THIS OCCUR OVER URBAN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF TODAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY... WITH THE
ADDITION OF AN 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH TO THE MIX TO AID IN
CONVECTION. WINDS A BIT STRONGER IN THE MID LEVELS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. SEVERE
THREAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL HAIL SIZES MAY BE
CLOSER TO GOLF BALL...AND DOWNBURSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL THREAT WILL COVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS...AS DOES THE 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH. BEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...IN AND AHEAD OF THE 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...LEAVING THE AREA DRY.

WHERE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 90S FRIDAY. EXPECTING ENOUGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY TO KEEP THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA OUT OF THE 90S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DRIFT FAR FROM 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN IS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
NEARLY EVERYONE DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING
LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID 60S...BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA... WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (INT/GSO
TAF SITES). VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN040 CUMULUS AND TOWERING
CUMULUS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LIKELY IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME MVFR FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY GIVEN
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...PRIMARILY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE.

LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY EASES
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.. AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1252 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-290915-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-
1252 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA BY 3 PM TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS.

AT THIS TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
RALEIGH.

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-290915-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1252 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS.

AT THIS TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

VINCENT

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