Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY... BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WEAK NE FLOW FROM
THE SFC UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SSW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

LIKELY POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WE
REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACTUALLY STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF COAST NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PA AND
SOUTHERN NY. AS OF 2 PM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE STATE...AND SEVERAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NC. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM HAIL AND WET DOWNBURSTS. WITH PWAT VALUES AT
1.50 AND SLOW SOUTHWEST STORM MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND IN LOCATIONS
REPEATEDLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL ACTIVITY
WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET... ALTHOUGH A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE H5 LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF CAPE COD
AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ACTUALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW
OFFSHORE AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT...HIGH TEMPS ON THU THRU SAT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH UPPER 70S IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
IT APPEARS THERE WILL SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND BOTH DEVELOP A WEAK H5 LOW
OVER VA BY FRI MORNING...SLOWLY ROTATING IT TOWARD THE COAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY THU...BRINGING A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...CAUSING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO BECOME MUCH WEAKER
THU AFT/EVE THROUGH SAT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED PREVIOUSLY
THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXPANDING INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND NORTHEAST GULF.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PREDOMINANT WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORS A DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 TO 95.

FOR WED...MODELS SUGGEST LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE APPALACHIANS...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS FOR AN
INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE WED. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. -RFG

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCNL CIGS LOWERING TO 1 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY BLO 3
MI.  OTHERWISE THIS AFTERNOON SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THSD FT AND VSBY UNRESTRICTED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SCT TO BKN ALTOCUMULUS WITH BASES 8 TO 10 THSD
FT.  THEN BY 09Z...A STRATUS LAYER AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
LIGHT NE FLOW WITH VSBY BELOW 3 MI AND CIGS NEAR 15 HND FT.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER WITH A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE.  CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 THSD FT
AND VSBY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO AOA 5 MI BY 15Z.

COOL MOIST NE FLOW PERSISTS DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO CENTRAL NC THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THSD FT AND OCNL VSBY 3
TO 5 MI IN SCT AREA OF RAIN OR SHWRS THROUGH SAT.  HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUN AND
MON. -RFG

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...RFG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
234 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

NCZ007>011-026>028-042-043-078-089-140900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
234 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

NCZ021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-140900-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
234 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             1 NNE EASTOVER          35.11N 78.78W
06/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NNE OF EASTOVER.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     HAIL             1 SW HOPE MILLS         34.96N 78.97W
06/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR HOPE MILLS GOLF COURSE.

&&

BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

NCZ022-023-039-040-132035-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
341 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GUILFORD...
ALAMANCE... RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF SILER CITY TO NEAR ELON
COLLEGE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RAMSEUR...
FRANKLINVILLE...ASHEBORO...AND ULAH.

RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

NCZ041-132100-
WAKE-
353 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WAKE
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST RALEIGH...KNIGHTDALE AND GARNER MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GARNER...
AUBURN...LAKE WHEELER...FUQUAY-VARINA.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

NCZ023-024-132045-
ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
355 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALAMANCE AND NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM UNION RIDGE TO SCHLEY...MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE GOOD SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING.

RFG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>