Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...WITH MID AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN SC/GA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN H5 LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN
NC.

FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. A MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING YIELDS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFT/EVE...AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6. FZL AND
WETBULB ZERO LEVELS ARE SIMILAR OR A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT 10
KFT AND 9 KFT RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH NO REAL LOW LEVEL FOCUS IS
PRESENT TODAY...A 20 UNIT VORT MAX ASSOC/W AN H5 TROF OR WEAK H5 LOW
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NC DURING THE DAY WILL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC ASCENT...WITH THE BEST LIFT IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP WITH THERMODYNAMICS THIS AFT/EVE
(H5 TEMPS OF -14C GSO AND -15C RNK ARE ABOUT 2C COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY)...AND WILL HELP TO OFFSET THE LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. AS FAR AS
SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...AND LOW WETBULB ZERO LEVELS...PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. WITH WEAK NE FLOW
FROM THE SFC TO THE TROPOPAUSE THIS AFT/EVE...ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST... AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE H5 LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF CAPE COD
AND LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ACTUALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE H5 LOW OFFSHORE AND
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUPPORT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.50 RANGE.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON
THU...WITH THICKNESSES FALLING AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NE TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS/NAM
SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SSE THROUGH WV/VA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON WED/THU...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON FRI. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST ON TRACK DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ESSENTIALLY WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING TREND EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH ALOFT LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HEIGHTS RISE INTO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY
MONDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW FEATURES MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF
STATES. DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS FLOW PERSISTS FROM OFF THE GULF. A BETTER CHANCE OF
DIURNAL TSTMS APPEARS TUE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DESTABILIZES A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. -RFG

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MAINTAINS A WEAK NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL NC.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO CAUSE SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY S AND W THIS
AFTERNOON AND NE LATER THIS EVENING.  MVFR VSBY CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WED...EXCEPT IFR IN FOG NEAR KFAY AND KRWI.

WITH NE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCT TSTMS LATE WED AND MVFR VSBY IN FOG DAYBREAK THU AND FRI. -RFG

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...RFG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

NCZ007>011-024>028-041>043-078-089-130900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR GREATER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
SOME HAIL... HOWEVER THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.
OTHERWISE... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-130900-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
SOME HAIL... HOWEVER THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.
OTHERWISE... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. STORM SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             FORT BRAGG              35.14N 79.00W
06/12/2007  M0.50 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER AT KFBG REPORTS 1/2 INCH HAIL.

&&

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
434 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             POPE AFB                35.17N 79.01W
06/12/2007  M0.50 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER AT KPOB REPORTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL.

&&

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
438 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPE AFB                35.17N 79.01W
06/12/2007  E48 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            48 MPH WIND GUSTS AT POPE AFB.

&&

BSD

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