Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
332 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION PRESENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS. CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS/THETA-E RIDGE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND W PIEDMONT AND
WAS MOVING SLOWLY SE. WET BULB ZERO VALUES FOR A MODIFIED GSO
SOUNDING WERE RIGHT AROUND 9K FT AND WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS PRIMARY
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE HAIL. NUMEROUS HAIL REPORTS RECEIVED
FROM WFOS CAE/GSP/RNK. MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL
BE ALONG THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN NC. PLAYED UP
POPS ACROSS SW AND N ZONES THIS EVENING WITH LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SE. DONT EXPECT A LOT OF CLEARING SO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATE TROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS WITH ONE APPROACHING
W NC TUESDAY AFTN AND ANOTHER WED AFTN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCT CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES SUGGEST AT LEAST
A LIMITED HAIL THREAT. BEST COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD RANGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA. WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 ON TUES AND WED WITH SOME
MODERATION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS MODERATED
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE
WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AND NO LARGE SCALE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SMALL AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
AFTERNOONS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MID LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND A WARMING TREND ENSUES. AFTERNOON HIGHS 90 TO 95 BY
MONDAY. MORNING LOWS WARM AS WELL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING... THE BETTER COVERAGE IS MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST.
HAVE LIMITED ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO GREENSBORO AND WINSTON-
SALEM AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP BEFORE NOON
TUESDAY.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...RLH
AVIATION...RLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-122045-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
432 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF RALEIGH. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

NCZ022-112015-
GUILFORD-
322 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GUILFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES NORTH OF LAKE TOWNSEND...OR ABOUT OVER STONEVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LAKE TOWNSEND AROUND 410 PM
EDT...MONTICELLO AROUND 415 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

NCZ007-023-024-112030-
ALAMANCE-ORANGE-PERSON-
327 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PERSON AND NORTHERN
ALAMANCE AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES...ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF
ALTAMAHAW...OR ABOUT OVER CAMP SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ALTAMAHAW AROUND 410 PM EDT...
UNION RIDGE AROUND 420 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

VINCENT