Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 032201
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCC007-040000-
ANSON NC-
600 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN ANSON COUNTY...

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WADESBORO...
MORVEN...MCFARLAN...AND AREAS AROUND CASON OIL FIELD.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ANSON COUNTY AT 555 PM.  SHOWERS CONTINUED 
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...WHERE THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF 
RAINFALL TOTALS ESTIMATED BY RADAR OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...JUST SOUTH OF 
CASON OIL FIELD.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN 6 AND
7 PM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...LESS THAN A HALF INCH...
HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL 
POSE A RISK OF FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN LOW LYING 
AREAS.  

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.  THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO 
GREAT TO CROSS SAFELY.  STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST 
WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3502 7987 3492 7986 3481 7992 3482 8031
      3502 8032

$$

DJF

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 032300
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
659 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCC007-032303-
ANSON NC-
659 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ANSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 655 PM...THE ANSON COUNTY SHERIFF HAD NO REPORTS OF FLOODING IN 
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.  ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING 
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.  AS A 
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ANSON COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

STILL...EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES JUST SOUTH 
OF CASON OIL FIELD...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS FIVE INCHES 
AN HOUR DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORMS BETWEEN 430 PM AND 515 PM...
LIKELY RESULTED IN LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL 
STREAMS AND CREEKS.  STAY AWAY FROM ANY STREAM THAT IS RUNNING HIGH 
AND FLOWING FAST.  DO NOT DRIVE OVER ANY DIP IN THE ROAD WHERE WATER 
MAY COVER IT...AND BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT WHEN DRIVING AT NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3502 7987 3492 7986 3481 7992 3482 8031
      3502 8032

$$

DJF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED WEST TO EAST... FROM KANSAS
THROUGH MO... KY... AND INTO VA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A CUT
OFF LOW AT H5 OVER N TEXAS. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NC... TO THE SE COASTAL AREA OF NC. A SECONDARY PUSH OF
COOLER STABLE AIR WAS ADVANCING S-SW THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT EARLY AFTERNOON... DRIVEN BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SPREADING S-SW FROM NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS BEHIND
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE TEMPERATURES FELL 4-5 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (RDU AND GSO) AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSED
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON... THE
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN HOLDING BETWEEN 60-63 WITH THE
LOW OVERCAST AND NE BREEZE... WHILE READINGS DOWN SOUTH AT
WADESBORO... ROCKINGHAM... AND LAURINBURG HAD REACHED 80-82 WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ORGANIZED SHOWERS REMAINED TO OUR
NORTHWEST-NORTH ALONG THE OLD H5 SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM KY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... THE SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN. WE WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
THAT CLIP OUR BORDER COUNTIES. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY FALL 5-7 DEGREES IN AN HOUR AS THE FRONT PASSES...
ESPECIALLY WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 80S AT EARLY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE SURFACE WINDS ALREADY FROM THE NE... ADVECTING MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE REGION... THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY APPEARS RATHER
SMALL. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT... INSTABILITY...AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS ONLY ABOUT A 10 POP.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... THE CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE NW EARLY... THEN ELSEWHERE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE H5 SHEAR AXIS TO OUR NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN NC. THE REGION IS
FORECAST TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
H2 JET... WHICH SHOULD WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER... TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. POP
WILL BE RAISED CATEGORICAL NORTH... WITH LIKELY SE-S.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE INCREASINGLY STABLE AS THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NE. THEREFORE...
THE 12Z GFS QPF CONVECTIVE LOOKING BULLS EYE OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY APPEARS WAY OVERDONE. THE 12Z NAM
QPF IS MUCH LIGHTER 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH... AND APPEARS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN. THE MAXIMUM QPF MAY
VERY WELL BE IN THE NW... WHERE THE WAA PATTERN AND LIFT OF THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY THE INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE 50S (NEAR 50 NE TO MID 50S SW).

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF UPGLIDE
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL COOL STABLE DOME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL
FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SATURDAY... BUT POP SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TOWARD KY BY
EARLY SATURDAY... THE SHEAR OUT OVER VA/NC LATER SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE CENTRAL NC WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COOL STABLE DOME... WE WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER CHANCE FOR NOW.
WE WILL INSERT CHANCE (30-50 POP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT). LOWS SATURDAY GENERALLY 50-55... HIGHS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S NW-N RANGING TO THE MID 70S SE.

DEFINITIVE DRYING IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SHOULD GET PUSHED SOUTH QUICKLY AS A H5
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPS... EVEN THROUGH A 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXTEND DOWN INTO NC FROM EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON MONDAY TO THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY... UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES.  DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PERIODS OF MID/ HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY... AS
BOTH NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGHS THURSDAY A
TOUCH COOLER AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE... HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH MORNING FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY
MORNING. -MWS
&&

.AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO POOL IN NORTHEAST FLOW
BENEATH A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE INVERSION THROUGH FRIDAY... WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON... AS SLIGHTLY DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR
ADVECTS INTO SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 290-300 K LAYER... AND A DECREASE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT DECREASE IN NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS... WILL
RESULT IN CEILINGS LOWERING INTO IFR RANGE AFTER SUNSET. THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS SLOPED
ASCENT INTO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200 MILLIBAR NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK... RESULTING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC
LIFT... INCREASES. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE...
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK INTO MVFR RANGE THEREAFTER. AS
AN ASIDE... SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA HAS CONVERGED
AND BECOME TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
SMOKE LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT KFAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD... AS IT WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH
THE WEDGE INVERSION IN CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  -MWS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
330 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY... THEN A CLOUDY AND
COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY... WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK... ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
422 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

NCZ083-032130-
ANSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WADESBORO
422 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING HEADED FOR SOUTHERN ANSON COUNTY...

AT 415 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHESTERFIELD COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
STORM WAS ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF WADESBORO IN ANSON COUNTY...AND
WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE STORM WAS SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ANSON COUNTY...
JUST WEST OF MCFARLAN AND MORVEN...BY 430 PM. IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR MAY
OCCUR. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD...REMAIN INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS...
FIND SAFE SHELTER AND REMEMBER THAT TREES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM
LIGHTNING.

DJF