Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 122209
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
606 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCC135-130030-
ORANGE NC-
606 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR
ORANGE COUNTY...

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HILLSBOROUGH...CARRBORO AND CHAPEL HILL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. A STORM SPOTTER IN CHAPEL HILL MEASURED 1.4 
INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED 
AROUND CHAPEL HILL AND HILLSBOROUGH. MOTORISTS NEED TO AVOID AREAS 
KNOWN TO FLOOD DURING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3623 7896 3607 7898 3586 7902 3586 7915
      3587 7924 3592 7926 3624 7926

$$

WSS

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 122347
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCC135-122356-
ORANGE NC-
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN SUBSIDED AROUND 645 PM AND THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. YOU SHOULD NOT WALK CLOSE TO RAIN SWOLLEN 
CREEKS AND STREAMS UNTIL THE WATER HAS SUBSIDED.

LAT...LON 3623 7896 3607 7898 3586 7902 3586 7915
      3587 7924 3592 7926 3624 7926

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL DRIFT OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS A SHORT WAVE ALOFT PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...JET
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIVERGENCE TO HELP STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
850 MB WILL HELP CONVERGE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATE TODAY. P-WATER IN THE COLUMN IS
EXPECTED TO BE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PCT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN DROP BACK TO A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 60 TO 65. -RFG
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY THEN FLATTENS INTO A MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW TUE.  A
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY OFF THE
NC COAST LATER MONDAY THEN STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH BASIN TO BERMUDA TUE PUTTING CENTRAL NC INTO AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN THROUGH MON...
WE SHOULD SEE A WARM UP INTO THE 80S ON TUE.  THIS PERIOD REMAINS
DRY WITH ONLY SOME FLEETING HIGH CLOUDINESS MON NIGHT AND TUE.  -RFG

&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH. WITH SFC WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING...TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL DISAGREE
ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES A
NORTHEAST. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS FORECAST OF MORE
AMPLIFICATION AND A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SUGGESTING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
EACH GFS RUN HAS HANDLED THE ENERGY SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...NOW
SHOWING A FAST PROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PIECE DROPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MORE OF ANAFRONT EVENT DEVELOPS WITH ALL THE PRECIP
OCCURRING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD LIKELY
HINDER THUNDER CHANCES. AT THIS POINT GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...
WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...LINGERING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PLEASANT TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. -JFB
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE COMBINATION OF A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION AT ANY ONE AIRPORT. THEREFORE...TAFS WILL
REFLECT SHRA AND VCTS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. AS TIMING OF THUNDER BECOMES MORE APPARENT AT
INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS...WILL AMEND TO REFLECT THE BEST TIMING.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. CLOUDS GENERALLY GO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KRWI AND KFAY SINCE DRIER AIR WILL NOT WORK INTO
THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. WILL MENTION MVFR FOG FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO 20KT IN THE 13-16Z TIME FRAME.
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
CEILING CONCERNS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. -JFB
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RFG
NEAR TERM...RFG
SHORT TERM...RFG
LONG TERM...JFB
AVIATION...JFB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-131515-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE TYPICAL ASSOCIATED DANGERS OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SUDDEN GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO HELP MONITOR LOCALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

RFG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S RAMSEUR             35.66N 79.65W
05/12/2007                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE FORT CREEK HAS COME OUT OF ITS BANKS AND IS FLOODING
            RIVERSIDE BRIDGE. OTHER CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR FLOOD
            ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             2 E BUTNER              36.14N 78.73W
05/12/2007  M1.00 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM EAST LYON STATION ROAD

&&

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             8 NE BUTNER             36.22N 78.67W
05/12/2007  M1.00 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM HIGHWAY 15 AND SANDERS ROAD.

&&

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCZ027-042-043-078-122215-
JOHNSTON-NASH-WAYNE-WILSON-
511 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH...WILSON...JOHNSTON AND
WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SIMS TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMIT...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LINWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE TOWNS OF MICRO... KENLY... AND WILSON WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
516 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E SEAGROVE            35.54N 79.63W
05/12/2007                   RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING FORK CREEK MILL ROAD.

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
518 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

NCZ008-023>026-040-041-122215-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-ORANGE-WAKE-
518 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING OVER GRANVILLE... FRANKLIN... ALAMANCE...
ORANGE... DURHAM... WAKE... AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CREEDMOOR TO 5 MILES SOUTH
OF TEER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CREEDMOOR TO 10 MILES WEST OF CHAPEL HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HILLSBOROUGH... CHAPEL HILL... DURHAM... FEARRINGTON... BAHAMA...
AND THE BRIER CREEK AREA NORTH OF THE RALEIGH DURHAM AIRPORT. MUCH
OF THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
ALSO... HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

GIH