Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 122300
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
458 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COC101-122345-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-070612T2345Z/
PUEBLO CO-
458 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY...

AT 455 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
CENTERED NEAR PINON...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF PUEBLO...AND WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PUEBLO WEST...PUEBLO...PINON AND 
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM THE EL PASO COUNTY LINE SOUTH THROUGH PUEBLO.

LAT...LON 3842 10480 3822 10478 3817 10463 3824 10453
      3851 10443 3851 10472

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 122311
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
511 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COC101-122321-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-070612T2345Z/
PUEBLO CO-
511 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY...

HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3842 10480 3822 10478 3817 10463 3824 10453
      3851 10443 3851 10472

$$

METZE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER SC COLO. A FEW SCTD SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND OVER THE SW MTNS. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM? BOUNDARY/COOL FRONT SHOULD
START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AROUND 21Z AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT S AND E OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THE JET OVER US AND PRETTY GOOD
CAPE OVER THE PLAINS...I AM A BIT CONCERNED OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE AND BECOMING SVR....HOWEVER NO
SHORT RANGE MODEL IS BREAKING OUT ANY SIGNIF CELLULAR PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WITH THE
BOUNDARY MOVG ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THEN DECREASING
POPS LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

TOMORROW...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS MOD NW FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. DECREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED FCST
EARLIER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MOD NW FLOW. SHOWERS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE ISOLD AND
MAINLY ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE S MTS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

STILL SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY EASTERN BORDER AREAS...
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...DUE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT.

LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AFTER THAT...PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GENERAL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH LIKELY ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO WARRANT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULDNT BE A BIG DEAL.  IF IT TURNS
OUT TO BE A REAL FEATURE...MAY HAVE TO UP POPS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED.

NEXT POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH WOULD ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUNS ARE LOOKING WEAKER/FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST WITH THIS WAVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH FROPA OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...WITH PRECIP ODDS GOING UP
BEHIND FROPA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. 12Z GFS40 DOESNT LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE QPF
OVER THE AREA AS IT DID IN THE 06Z RUN. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
ON THIS ONE. LW

&&

.AVIATION...WIND SHIFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS COS AROUND 21Z AND PUB
AROUND 22Z. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NW FOR
A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. EXPECT SCTD TSRA WITH THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIF LOW CIGS FOR AN EXTD PERIOD OF
TIME WITH THE STORMS. AS FOR ALS...EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIF WX AT THIS
SITE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

34/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
930 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-131400-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
930 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 25 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE MOVING BACK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HODANISH