Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

WILL KEEP THIS VERY SHORT AS TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO
COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MDT...WHILE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS PRIMED FOR
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LATEST(20Z) SPC CAPES/LIS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS IN THE
2500(J/KG)/-7(C) RANGE WHILE THE 0-6KM SHEAR VECTOR HAS BUMPED UP
INTO THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE.  WILL PAINT IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.  WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH
BOX BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER TODAY WITH STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. 77

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...AS CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WX WILL BE LATE THU AFTERNOON-EVE OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. STRONG MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING THRU KS AND SE CO
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STREAK. SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SOMEWHERE IN VCNTY OF THE OK PANHANDLE/NE NM. THIS WILL BRING
DEEP MOISTURE OVER EXTREME SE CO...WITH LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS LIKELY
OVR BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES. STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
RAMPARTS/PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD
THRU THE EVE. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE
REGION OF BEST MOISTURE. MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SRN IMPULSE WILL KEEP THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
OVR THE NRN ROCKIES. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALONG WITH TIMING OF UPPER WAVES...OPTED TO LEAVE
ALL MENTION OF PRECIP AS TSTORMS RATHER THAN SHOWERS. WILL SEE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS OVR MOST OF THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING THE UPPER DISTURBANCES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE NOTED
FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

77/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
640 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-301245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
640 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH OR GREATER...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING ARE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 7500 OR 8000 FEET...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY
THE TIME THIS OCCURS.  CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON THURSDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. WIND SHEARS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...RESULTING FROM THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND FROM SURFACE HEATING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE LIKELY AFTER 2 PM TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.