Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 130102
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
701 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

COC041-130145-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-070713T0145Z/
EL PASO CO-
701 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 657 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDED 
FROM ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 94 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 50 
MPH.  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE STRONG WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSH.
  ELLICOTT.
  YODER.
  TRUCKTON.

LAT...LON 3912 10407 3912 10446 3852 10449 3852 10406

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 130120
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
718 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

COC041-130145-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-070713T0145Z/
EL PASO CO-
718 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 714 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.  RADAR INDICATES WIND SPEEDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER OVER THE 
EASTERN HALF OF EL PASO COUNTY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YODER.
  RUSH.
  ELLICOTT.
  CALHAN.

LAT...LON 3912 10407 3912 10446 3852 10449 3852 10406

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 130137
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
737 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

COC041-130147-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-070713T0145Z/
EL PASO CO-
737 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 745 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 3912 10407 3912 10446 3852 10449 3852 10406

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRI)

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE FLOW IS VERY NON-DESCRIPT...SO MAKING IT TOUGH
TO FOCUS ON LOW LEVEL FORCING OF THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
FUEL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
SERN CO...AND ALMOST AROUND 50F IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TOUGH TO SEE
ANY FEATURE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL
UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED FROM NRN UT
INTO CNTRL CO. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE 1K-2.5K J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND 1C IN THE MOUNTAINS TO -6C IN
EXTREME SERN CO. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN
CO AND NIL/WEAKER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EARLY THIS AFTN...THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AT BEST...SO STORM TYPE WOULD
BE PULSE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
VERY JUICY ALOFT WITH H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG.
LAPS FREEZING LEVEL CONTINUES TO BE 14K-15K FT.

LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THE
REST OF THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOTS OF FUEL AND INSTABILITY
SITTING AROUND WAITING TO BE RELEASED. WILL LIKELY SEE PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE AND RE-GENERATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PINDOWN. THEY LITERALLY COULD BE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE /NUMEROUS/ POP CATEGORY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY... RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS H7-H5 <
10KTS...AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG...
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING/MERGING WILL BE PROLIFIC HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...PROBABLY 1-2.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
SPOTS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PENNY-QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50-60 MPH IF STORMS TRANSFORM INTO BOW ECHOES. THE SCT-NMRS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR SE AND HEAD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER
SUNSET.

FRI...PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY A GOOD TOOL. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING S AND E
THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY LOOKING FOR PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT STILL WEAK AT
BEST. MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. METZE

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY SOON AFTER SUNSET FRI NIGHT...BUT REAL QUESTION IS WHAT
SATURDAY WILL BRING. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A NORTHERLY SURGE
DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS SAT MORN AS THE STATE RESIDES ON THE NE
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR ONE MORE DAY. NAM BREAKS OUT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE BY MIDDAY...WHILE GFS IS A LOT
DRIER AND DOES NOT START ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING.
GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE THROUGH THE LAST WEEK...REALITY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE A BLEND OF THE TWO AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM
PERSISTENCE. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPLY THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS FRI...SO WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS AND ENDED AT
MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE US. THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE E PLAINS AND E SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GRIDS CURRENTLY FORECAST ISOLATED
POPS ALL AREAS...WHILE FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FEEL
THAT THIS IS REASONABLE DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S FOR THE
PLAINS...70S AND 80S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME OF
THE FIRE ZONES ARE ALREADY REACHING CRITICAL FUEL LEVELS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z/12. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS. METZE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
651 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-131300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
651 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE...THE
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
PLAINS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE HIGH
WATER IN STREAMS AND ARROYOS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. IF
THIS HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR OVER ONE OF THE MANY BURN SCARS ACROSS
THE REGION...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EVENING. THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL VARY WIDELY FROM
ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT WEATHER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ON A DAILY BASIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS.