Dust Storm Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-090600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 PM MST TUE MAY 8 2007

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE GIVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR A DUST STORM OR TWO OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO SW NM AT MID-AFTN TIME FRAME PER
LATEST WV LOOPS. SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABY WITH
THE EXITING LOW GIVING RISE TO ISOLD TSTMS OVER MAINLY ECNTRL AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABLY NOT ALOT OF RAIN FALLING FROM THESE STORMS
WITH LOWER LEVELS SO DRY...MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. STEERING FLOWS ARE GENERALLY TAKING THE ACTIVITY SWWD
TOWARDS THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SO LOW...
GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S...DOUBT IF THERE IS MUCH THREAT FOR LARGE
SCALE PROPOGATION AND REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER DESERT FLOOR.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE A TSTM OUTFLOW OR TWO ALONG
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SWIRLING AROUND THE ERN PART OF MARICOPA
COUNTY/NW PINAL COUNTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. H5
HEIGHTS WITH THIS RIDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100M ABOVE CLIMO...SO WE
CAN EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND THRU THURSDAY...WITH WARMEST DESERTS
TOPPING OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND 105 BY THU/FRI TIME FRAME. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER NEXT FEW NIGHTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC-SCALE WINDS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WE
CAN EXPECT LOCAL BREEZES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
SAT/SUN...ALONG WITH A FEW DEG OF COOLING AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER A BIT.
WARMEST DESERT LOCALES WILL REACH 105/106 FRI/SAT...THEN COOL TO
NEAR 100 EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY/MID MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LCL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35KT...FROM THUNDERSTORMS E AND SE OF
KPHX/KIWA...SHOW INCREASED PROBABILITY OF GENERATING AREAS OF BLDU
VICINITY OF KPHX/KIWA...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3SM MOST LIKELY AFT
23Z. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04Z...REMAINING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN AZ AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DRY AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STARTING WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER ARIZONA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES DROP EVEN LOWER INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TREND DOWN TO CRITICAL
LEVELS...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...WITH UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THORUGH THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY...INCREASING
AFTERNOON WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

ESTLE/22/MEYERS

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