Dust Storm Warning 1, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-290600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST SAT APR 28 2007

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS LIKELY WITH DRY
WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAVE PICKED UP TODAY AND
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AT LEAST ONE BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING TOWARD THE
WEST THIS EVENING...WITH TYPICAL INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS. HAVE
INSERTED SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO ZONE 28 FOR THIS EVENING ON
TOP OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS THERE. THE GLOBE RAWS SITE HAD A
DEW POINT OF 32F AND KIWA REPORTED A 36F AT MID DAY. MODELS AGREE ON
KICKING THE CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOWING THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM NEAR EL PASO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DRIFT OFF THE RIM AND AFFECT AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX ON SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AND SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 100 IN
THE PHOENIX AREA TODAY...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF MINOR SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
FASTER THAN OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TAKING A BLENDED
APPROACH...LEFT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SKY AND TEMPS AS
IS...HOLDING OFF ON INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THERE IS MODEL
AGREEMENT ON SHORT-LIVED RIDGING THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FLATTENING
OUT IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. BY
FRIDAY THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THAT TROUGH. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THE BRUNT OF IT NORTH OF
ARIZONA WHEREAS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS DEEPER TROUGHING.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN SHOW A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE HAS BEEN VERY POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR THE OPERATIONAL GFS. A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A COOLING
TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO BEGIN MENTIONING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR KPHX...KIWA...AND SURROUNDING VALLEY AIRFIELDS EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BRIEF RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LARGER AREAS OF 30-35KT WINDS AND LOCAL VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE
IN BLOWING DUST WILL AFFECT MUCH OF PHOENIX METRO AREA BETWEEN
22Z-02Z...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT...BUT MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 6-8 KFT DURING RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOR KIPL...KBLH...AND KYUM...EXPECT CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT NUMEROUS DESERT SITES. LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES 133 AND THE EXTREME EASTERN
HALF OF ZONE 132 THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS....BUT DRY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN MONDAY REGION-WIDE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT
THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

10/17/07

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