Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS RUNNING
RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER IF ID. W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SRLY FLOW IS
BRINGING ENERGY AND MSTR TO SET OFF SIGNIGICANT DEEP CONVECTION...
WHILE ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POPPING OVER THE RIDGELINES IN
THE FCST AREA MTNS. FAR LESS COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. THE TSTMS
SHOULD DIE OUT IN THE EVENING. THE RIDGE MOVES LITTLE ON SATURDAY
...SO EXPECTING A REPEAT OF TODAY. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
A LITTLE EAST...PUTTING THE FCST AREA UNDER SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW COAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EWD NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TO ADVANCE. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND ONLY ALLOWS SHORT WAVE TROFS
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOWER HGTS OVER THE FCST AREA...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPS. LOOKS
LIKE ANY ENERGY OR MSTR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED
TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA ON WED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  PATTERN STILL INDICATIVE OF SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS/OBSCURATIONS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT KSUN AND
TWEB340...343 AND POSSIBLY 344.  WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT ON TOP OF US...EXPECT FOR ANY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S WITH SOME POSSIBLE 100S IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RIDGE OVER IDAHO WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS
WITH A SLIFT EASTWARD SHIFT AS TIMES GOES BY.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS
POPPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHC OF WET/DRY STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALREADY IN FORECAST. BONANZA SAW OVER 1
INCH OF RAINFALL ON THURSDAY SO POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR DECENT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS OR MULTIPLE STORMS PASSING OVER A
GIVEN AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS
WELL.  MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH
WIDEPSREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICPATED RIGHT NOW.  WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN
MANY LOCALES.  THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE LARGE TROF OVER THE PACIFIC TO MOVE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO BRING A STONGER SW FLOW ALOFT AND A COOLDOWN OF
SORTS. BEARS WATCHING FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND ANY MOISTURE THAT
WOULD COME FROM MEXICO/PACIFIC/BAJA AREAS.  STAY TUNED.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
558 AM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

IDZ017>025-031-032-141200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
558 AM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. THE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE MONTANA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN IDAHO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.