Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN ACTIVE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT
STATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS.
RECENT STORM REPORTS HAVE STATED THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN SMALL CORES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL IDAHO...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A MODERATE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN OPEN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD IDAHO DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MIGRATES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO.

CANTIN

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM BURLEY THROUGH
IDAHO FALLS AND ALONG ALL TWEB ROUTES.  GENERALLY SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS NOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN ZONES
412 AND 413 THIS AFTERNOON.  MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WET...BUT SOME WILL BE DRY AND WITH THE FUEL SITUATION
MANY FIRE STARTS STILL POSSIBLE DESPITE THE RAIN WITHIN THEM.  THUS
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL 11 PM FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ZONES 405 AND 406 FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.  A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND THINK WIND GUSTS WILL
EXCEED 30 MILES PER HOUR IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.  THINK THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL HAVE HIGH WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY AS WELL BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT.  EXPECT SUNDAY TO ALSO BE
WINDY BEHIND COLD FRONT AND IT COULD ALSO BE A RED FLAG SCENARIO.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ405>407-
409>413.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR IDZ405-406.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 17 2007

IDZ017>025-031-032-181200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SCATTERED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.