Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Pocatello, ID

000 
WWUS85 KPIH 130037
RFWPIH

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
637 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELED...

.

IDZ410-411-130145-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070713T0600Z/
UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/NE PORTION UPPER SNAKE RIVER BLM-
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE RIVER RANGE/TARGHEE NF-
637 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN IDAHO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM RAWS SITES AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR THIS
EVENING INDICATES THAT WETTING RAINS ARE ACCUMULATING WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELED.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

$$


MESSICK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
316 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO
TILT NORTHARD ACROSS FCST AREA PER WV SAT IMAGERY. FCST AREA STILL
CAUGHT UNDERNEATH RIDGE AXIS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG NORTHERN
BORDER AND MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA/UTAH. SOUNDINGS
TODAY SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE PUMPING SFC
DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT YET POTENTIAL FOR
40-45KT GUSTS. THUS BELIEVE STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET/DRY. HAVE
NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO GRID...BUT
WILL LET FIRE DESK MODIFY FOR DRY WORDING AND CONTINUE WATCH. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. UPPR RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER
FCST AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS APPEARS DRIER AS BULK OF MOISTURE
ROTATES EAST OF FCST AREA. DMH

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MADE FEW MNIOR CHANGES TO
REMAINDER OF FCST. FOUR CORNERS HIGH THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH
BITS OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH FCST AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS ACROSS REGION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS EAST TOWARD COAST...WHICH HELPS TO FLATTEN
RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND PUSH AXIS TO THE EAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID-WEEK...BUT HAVE ALSO CONTINUED DAILY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE THRU THE GREAT BASIN TODAY SO
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  BUT DECENT STREAM OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY MIDDAY CREATING
ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS ALL TWEB ROUTES.  WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DECREASING VIS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR SHORT PERIODS.
ALSO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SO CAUTION IS ADVISED
DURING TAKEOFFS/LANDINGS NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS.  MOST OF STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH SCT SKIES FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WARANAUSKAS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FOUR CORNERS THRU GREAT
BASIN AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW EASTWARD DRIFT AND AMPLIFICATION
NORTH OF US/CAN BORDER WHILE CLOSED EAST PAC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR
130W.  RESULT IS INCREASED FEED OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG/WEST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WHICH WILL INCREASE MIN
HUMIDITIES AND SPARK WIDER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EVE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER ANALYSES POINT TO MIX OF WET & DRY
STORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.
WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AS WELL. GIVEN CURRENT WIDESPREAD AREA OF CRITICAL FUELS IN THE
FIRE DISTRICT AND TRACK RECORD OF FIRE STARTS FROM MIXED STORMS THIS
PAST WEEKEND...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN FIRE WATCH FOR TODAY.
AIRMASS SHOULD DRY OUT SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVERHEAD THRU THE DISTRICT...KEEPING FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR
STORMS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MTNS.  MOIST FLOW RETURNS ON SAT AS
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TOWARD ID/WY BORDER...MAKING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET/DRY STORMS.  WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ405>407-410>413.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
604 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

IDZ017>025-031-032-131215-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
604 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THE STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY...AND CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN IDAHO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.