Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...LAST PIECES OF ENERGY FROM MONSOON PUSH COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANCE MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ERUPT OVER REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
WITH DYNAMICS UNTIL AT LEAST UNTIL MID EVENING. WATER VAPOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY PUSH INTO AREA IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDING INTO AREA. TOMORROW EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE TODAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND STARTING SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SO
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND RETURN TO MOIST FLOW.
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF BAJA OF CALIFORNIA ALSO A PLAYER IN MOISTURE
RETURN AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR ITS ENTRAINMENT INTO OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH WEEKEND.  PRESTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR BACK INTO
EASTERN IDAHO AS WE GO INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE DRY AND ISOLATED. HIGHS WILL BE
RISING HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING AT ALL TIMES OF DAY. EXPECT POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT MIDSLOPE.  WINDS WILL BE
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN SAVE FOR ANY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR STORMS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...TWEB ROUTES LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA AND -TSRA
THROUGH EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL OBSCURATIONS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. TAF SITES ARE LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY IF NOT ON
SITE THROUGH 4Z. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MORE
VFR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
400 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

IDZ017>025-031-032-271200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
400 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAST IN SERIES OF MONSOONAL WAVES EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY PRODUCING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAIN
THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL POSITIONED OVER
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. UPPER RIDGE
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THAT A RETURN OF MONSOONAL
FLOW ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.