Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2007

Winter Weather Advisory 16, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

December 12, 20074 counties in New Jersey; Cecil County, Maryland

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Dec 12, 2007, 4:25 PM EST for 4 counties in New Jersey; Cecil County, Maryland. It took effect at Dec 13, 2007, 9:00 AM EST. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 12, 2007, 4:25 PM EST (21:25 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 13, 2007, 9:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 13, 2007, 2:35 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Cecil County, MD, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD at 12:00Z on 2007-12-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD at 12:00Z on 2007-12-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
973 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
290 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 122125
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL THEN 
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF 
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT 
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN SLEET TO A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE STORM WILL THEN COME TO AN END DURING
THURSDAY EVENING.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.071213T1500Z-071214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
425 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE 
IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED, WHICH WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-131000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.071213T1500Z-071214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
425 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY 
EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET OF 5 TO AS
MUCH AS 8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED, MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE
ANTICIPATED PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

MDZ008-NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-131000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
CECIL-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
425 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AS MILDER AIR MOVES IN, LOCATIONS FARTHER 
SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN DURING 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER SLEET CAN STILL
MIX IN. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED
COUNTIES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE 
EXPECTED. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING
THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET, OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

GORSE
4 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KPHI 130124
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
824 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY... BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN SLEET TO A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE STORM WILL THEN
COME TO AN END DURING THURSDAY EVENING.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
824 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN. SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...
WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-131100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
824 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST
THURSDAY. 

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET OF 5 TO AS
MUCH AS 8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED... MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE ANTICIPATED
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

MDZ008-NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-131100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
CECIL-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
824 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM
EST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM
EST THURSDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AS MILDER AIR MOVES IN...LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEREBY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...SLEET CAN STILL MIX IN. 

FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET RANGING FROM 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES
IN NEW JERSEY AND MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THURSDAY
EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET...
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KPHI 130905
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
TODAY AND MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS 
OUR REGION... BRINGING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP TO NORTHERN AREAS 
AND MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN SLEET TO A GOOD PORTION OF 
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... WITH LESSER 
AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE STORM WILL THEN COME TO 
AN END DURING THE EVENING.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
405 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 
TO 10 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. 
THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-131700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
405 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING 
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON.  TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET OF 5 TO AS MUCH AS 
8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED... MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. THERE IS THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES DURING 
THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE ANTICIPATED 
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

MDZ008-NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-131700-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.071213T1400Z-071214T0400Z/
CECIL-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
405 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
REGION THIS MORNING. AS MILDER AIR MOVES IN...LOCATIONS FARTHER 
SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN DURING THIS 
AFTERNOON... THEREBY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET RANGING FROM 1 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY AND MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET...
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NIERENBERG
000 
WWUS41 KPHI 131658
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1158 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS STORM IS BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP TO NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING TO MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
THE STORM WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING.

NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-140100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
1158 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH SO FAR HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
SOME AREAS AND FURTHER ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE THIRD INCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR SNOW DURING THE
EVENING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE STORM. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-140100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1158 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

THE SNOW THAT OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING
IN. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. SOME ADDITION SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 5 TO 9 INCHES. THE
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-140100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1158 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

THE MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAT OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...
MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...BRING THE STORM TOTAL
TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

MDZ008-NJZ012-015-140100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
CECIL-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON
1158 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN IN BEHIND THE STORM. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET...
OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

AMC
000 
WWUS41 KPHI 131935
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REFORM EAST OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN HEAD EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW TO THE
AREA NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA INTO TONIGHT. THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT.

MDZ008-132045-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
CECIL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ELKTON
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED ABOVE FREEZING.

$$

NJZ012-015-140400-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOWER 30S. AT TIMES, SOME SLEET WILL
ALSO MIX IN. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TRENTON WERE BELOW
FREEZING, WHILE TRENTON WAS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, THEREBY
LIMITING THE ICING THERE. IN AREAS THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THERE WILL BE A TOTAL ICE ACCRETION OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH,
MAINLY ON EXPOSED AND UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET...AND
ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-140400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW, OCCASIONAL MIXED WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-140400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL OCCASIONALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN,
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE ICE
ACCRETION OF UP TO 1/2 FROM THE FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY ON EXPOSED
AND UNTREATED SURFACES. 

LATER THIS EVENING, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-140400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
235 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL OCCASIONALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN,
BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE ICE
ACCRETION OF UP TO 1/2 FROM THE FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY ON EXPOSED
AND UNTREATED SURFACES.

LATER THIS EVENING, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET...AND
ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

$$


STAUBER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Dec 12, 1:42 PM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 1:42 PM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING,
AND WILL SLOWLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NEAR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO SOME LOCATIONS AND RAIN TO OTHERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE TOWARD OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY THEN AFFECT OUR ENTIRE REGION
THIS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
BECOMING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
MOST AREAS ARE 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF FORECAST HIGH, AND IF ANY SUN
POKES THROUGH, IT COULD KNOCK UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF RESPITE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM
THE N, IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THIS LOW WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TO THE AREA AND
IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHALLENGING FCST.  THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY, BUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE S AND W.  THE PRECIP WILL GET
STEADIER AND HEAVIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING.  TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE KEY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIP FALLS AND WHERE.  ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES,
TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING.  AS A RESULT, MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED HERE.  THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, BUT A MESS COULD BE THE END RESULT.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM DETAILS ARE ALL YET TO BE FULLY RESOLVED AND
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.  MODEL AND HPC QPFS GIVE OVER 0.50 INCHES OF PRECIP,
SO IN THE AREAS WHERE IT STAYS ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW, THERE COULD BE
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES.

FURTHER S, THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE.  UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MAY
BE IN THE NRN SUBURBS OF PHILLY.  TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE AROUND
FREEZING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.

FOR THE AREAS S AND EAST OF PHILLY, IF THINGS GET COLD ENOUGH, THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP, FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS UP, THURSDAY
MORNINGS COMMUTE WILL BE DRY.  HOWEVER, THURSDAY AFTERNOONS COULD
BE MESSY IN A LOT OF LOCATIONS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HERE THAT WITH MANY WINTRY SYSTEMS A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE AND IT
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE TRANSITION ZONES.  CLEARLY TO THE N AND W,
THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM NOR ACROSS SERN AREAS, BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ONE
OR TWO DEGREES CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BIG PROBLEMS AND
NOTHING.

THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST, AND THINGS DRY OUT AS
COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON NW TO W FLOW.

THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION      2IN      4IN      6IN      9IN     12IN
====================================================================

MPO          80       65       45       15        5
ABE          75       55       35       10        5
PHL          10       <5       <5       <5       <5
ACY          <5       <5       <5       <5       <5
GED          <5       <5       <5       <5       <5

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AND THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.  HOWEVER, THIS
RESPITE WILL NOT LAST LONG.

ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF WINTER STORM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  OF COURSE, THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE MANY
DIFFS IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE FCST.  A COUPLE
OF TRENDS SEEM TO BE EMERGING THOUGH, THE FIRST IS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SECOND IS THAT FROM PHL S AND E, THERE
COULD BE A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIP FOR AWHILE BEFORE MORE OF A RAIN
EVENT.  NONETHELESS, EVEN THESE TRENDS COULD CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS.  THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK AND WHERE ANY BOMBING OUT TAKES PLACE.  MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE LOW TO THE WEST FOR AT LEAST PART OF
ITS LIFETIME AND MOST ARE NOT RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING IT UNTIL ITS
PAST US.  THE ECMWF, WHICH TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE
MODELS, KEEPS A MORE WESTERLY SOLN, AND AS A RESULT HAS A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN STORM AS DOES THE UKMET, THE GFS INDICATES THERE
COULD BE MORE SNOW, ESPECIALLY N AND W.  THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE.   OBVIOUSLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEST WEEK.  IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION, WE MAY SEE THE SUN FOR A FEW DAYS IN A ROW...SOMETHING
THAT WE HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO DO OF LATE.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
AOB SEASONAL NORMALS THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF TAFS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE SOME THAT
HAVE GONE COMPLETELY VFR, SOME VFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS, SOME MVFR
CIGS/VFR VSBYS, AND SOME COMPLETELY MVFR. THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON, THROUGH IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ALL
SITES SHOULD GO TOTALLY VFR AT SOME POINT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WE
HAVE FORECAST A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE A BIT
THIS EVENING AS THE DIRECTION VEERS MORE TO THE NORTH.

THURSDAY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEMATIC DAY FOR AIR
TRAVEL, WITH PRECIP BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.  LOW CLOUDS AND
LOW VSBY VALUES ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.  MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME AT THE ONSET AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE.  A LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT KTTN
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET ANTICIPATED FOR KABE AND KRDG.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN OF CHILLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE A STORM MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 PM. WINDS ARE GENREALLY 10-15 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS
STILL UP AROUND 20 KT. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 4 FT, THROUGH THERE
MAY BE A FEW SPOTS FARTHER OUT WHERE 5 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ARE NEXT EXPECTED.

THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT, THEN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE ON THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN AROUND THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.  IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH AN INTENSIFYING
STORM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON SATURDAY,
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBURG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBURG
LONG TERM...NIERENBURG
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...ROBERTSON/IOVINO
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 12, 2:03 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-131000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW, WHICH MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE.

A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-131000-
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW, WHICH MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE.

A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-131000-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THESE COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES.

A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>020-027-PAZ070-071-131000-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED.

A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
ON THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ014-021>026-131000-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ALSO SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-131000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-131000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
203 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 12, 3:51 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton13 hr
Dec 12, 4:25 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton27 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2007Winter Weather Advisories in Maryland, 2007Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2007Every winter weather advisory in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.