Special Marine Warning 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
FZUS71 KPHI 202311
MWSPHI

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
710 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

ANZ450-202320-
/O.CAN.KPHI.MA.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070520T2345Z/
710 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREA WAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
INCLUDING BELMAR...SEA BRIGHT...SEA GIRT REEF AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED THE AREA. 

LAT...LON 4062 7464 4046 7476 3999 7373 4027 7367

$$

MPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
DAYS AHEAD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING, THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOWN THE ROAD WILL BE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WITH THE VORT MAX MAKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE UPPER LOW, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
ADJUSTED IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR MAINLY OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY IT IS PRESENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOON TO BE IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OVER A GOOD PART OF OUR ZONES WITH EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. YESTERDAY THE INVERTED V SOUNDING REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
AREA, WITH T/TD SPREADS AT THE SURFACE INITIALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 30
DEG F EARLIER SATURDAY, RESULTED IN SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KT IN SOME PRETTY SHALLOW AND WEAK REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. TODAY THE
SOUNDINGS NOT AS TYPICAL OF THE HIGH BASE V SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF WINDS. SOME ECHOES ARE AT 40-45DBZS. CLOUDS W/B
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT 4 OR 5
DEGREES ABOVE DEW POINTS. NOT DOING TO MENTION AN FOG AT THIS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SETTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY EVENING CONTINUES
EAST WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALIGNED ALONG THE RIDGE AXES. A
SMALLTERING CLOUDS AT TIMES FROM THIS INTO TUESDAY BUT NOT
PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAINING PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT AS THE
RIDGE NOW TAKING ITS SWEET OL TIME TO MOVE JUST AS THE UPPER LOW
DID EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, VIGOROUS CYCLONE JUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL TIGHTEN THE UPPER GRADIENT ON FRIDAY AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND FINALLY A ZONAL FLOW INTO SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS SOME
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MOSTL AREAS
WITH HIGH 70S NORTHERN AREAS. NOT HOT BY ANY MEANS, BUT A THREE-
FOUR DAY PERIOD WITH THE HUMIDITY JUST A LITTLE TIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
DURING MID AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR BY DARK. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITES, BUT WE DO EXPECT, AND HAVE HAD, SOME SHOWERS AT A FEW
SITES. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS INTO THE AREA, AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WITH MOST OF WHAT OCCURS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS (TOWARD
ABE) HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE SWINGING AROUND A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL
AS NOTED BY THE CWSU IN OUR COORDINATION CALL, WINDS COULD BE A
BIT GUSTY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS
A BIT HARD TO ADD INTO THE TAFS...THANKS CWSU ISP. AFTER THE
VORTICITY MAX/TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE AREA, CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BETTER THIS EVENING. WITH MANY
AREAS KEEPING AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS, NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WERE INTRODUCED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE AIRMASS DRIES A BIT FURTHER
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA (IN CANADA) DURING FRIDAY, WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THATS QUITE A
WAYS AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (THAT IS, THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING). WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, AND THEN SLACK OFF AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PARKS
FOR A BIT EARLY THIS WEEK. EVEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER THIS
WEEK, AND A RETURN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN. ITS HARD TO REMEMBER THE LAST TIME WAVEWATCH
FORECAST WAVES BELOW 5 FEET FOR IT ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AS IT
DOES WITH THIS RUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME,
CONDITIONS COULD GET CLOSE FOR OUR PENNSYLVANIA ZONES FOR MONDAY
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON, WHERE CRITERIA ARE A LITTLE LOWER. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR AROUND MIDDAY, BUT MAY SLACK OFF
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP FURTHER.
THE HUMIDITIES MAY NOT GET GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MINIMUMS,
BUT COULD DROP BELOW THAT LEVEL OR GET CLOSE AT A FEW PLACES AS AIR
MIXES DOWN FROM 850 HPA OR SO. FINE FUEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
BELOW CRITERIA. TO PRODUCE SOME NOTICE TO OUR FIRE MANAGERS, A
MENTION OF NEAR FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDED IN AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI
AVIATION... /ROBERTSON
MARINE... /
FIRE WEATHER... /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-211815-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR AT TIMES FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR
30 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON, AND SOME SPOTS MAY DROP TO NEAR 25
PERCENT ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION, THE FINE
FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT, AND MAY HAVE LESS THAN 10%
MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-211815-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-211815-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.