Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE IN THE
DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
EARLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON MID MORNING RADAR TRENDS...IVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. IVE ALSO PULLED BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AS WELL DUE TO THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. UPDATED DIGITAL GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY, WELL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.  IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A
SLUG OF PRECIP THIS MORNING, THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY THIS
EVENING, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE ONE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE WILL COME CLOSE TO SEEING SOME
FROST UP NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN IFR AREA OF LOW ST HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NE AND COVERS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ AND THE POCONOS/NORTHERN HALF OF THE LEHIGH
VALLEY IN PA.  IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS DOWN TO PNE BUT NOT TO PHL.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RETREAT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.  A
COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNINGS.  SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN FOR RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEK.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE
WEEKEND.  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL TIMES THIS WEEK WHEN CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH THE CRITERIA, BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  ONE OF
THOSE TIMES IS LATER TODAY AS THE S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASES.  ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
AVIATION/MARINE...RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-121000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH GUSTS WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-121000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH GUSTS WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1257 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

NJZ013-019-020-111800-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
1257 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR NEW EGYPT...CEDAR GLEN LAKES
AROUND 115 PM...LEISURE KNOLL AND LAKEHURST AROUND 130 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
111 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

NJZ012-013-111815-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
111 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CROSSING MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND IS MOVING
INTO MONMOUTH COUNTY. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING FROM THESE STORMS
AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL
CREEKS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

KRUZDLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
234 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

NJZ013-014-020-022>027-111930-
ATLANTIC-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
MONMOUTH...EASTERN OCEAN...ATLANTIC...AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM...

AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LONG BRANCH NEW JERSEY IN EASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WOODBINE IN CAPE MAY COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 25 TO
30 MPH.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTING FROM ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH 330 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

DEZ003-004-112000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-INLAND SUSSEX-
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SUSSEX COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SUSSEX COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 30 MILES AN HOUR.

ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT
TIME PERIOD WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.