Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS81 KPHI 300830
RFWPHI

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007

PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-301630-
/O.CON.KPHI.FW.A.0002.070430T1500Z-070430T2300Z/
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
430 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN UPPER 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 30
PERCENT COULD CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STARTING AND
SPREADING OF BRUSH AND WILD FIRES.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MIGHT OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

$$

KRUZDLO

000 
WWUS81 KPHI 301225
RFWPHI

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007

PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-301330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FW.A.0002.070430T1500Z-070430T2300Z/
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
825 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
WEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

EVEN THOUGH THE GUSTY WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO BOTH THE IGNITION AND SPREAD OF BRUSH AND WILDFIRES,
FINE FUELS REMAIN MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND THIS MORNINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS A RESULT, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1120 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

.PUBLIC UPDATE...
THE TEXT AND TABLE FORECASTS WILL BE REFRESHED FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. WE WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM SPC KEEPS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS IN THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA, AND WITH THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSING OVER ALL OF OUR AREA, WE DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BETTER TO REFRAIN FROM REMOVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE IF ANYTHING DOES
MANAGE TO FORM. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 SEEM GOOD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS IN VIEW OF THE
INCREASED CLOUDS COVER THAT IS CIRCULATING/FORMING INTO THE AREA
HOWEVER, WE WILL RAISE MAXIMUMS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN VIEW OF
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED GREATER INSOLATION.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...
THE MARINE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR EXPLICIT AFTERNOON
REFERENCES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE, BUT SOME SUBTLE WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED CHANGES WERE MADE TO A FEW OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.OVERVIEW...
KIND OF A FAST PACED RUN OF WX SYSTEMS BTWN NOW AND WED WITH DRIER
AND COOLER THAN NML WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS CORRECTLY, BUT THE ONE BENEFIT
OF THIS RING OF FIRE LOOKING PATTERN IS THAT IT NORMALLY DOES NOT
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAIN. PCPN CHCS WILL BE FOR ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA
FOR THIS AFTN, THEN LATE TNGT AND MON MRNG, THEN VERY LATE MON NGT
W, WITH MORE WDSPRD CHCS THRUT OUR CWA TUE INTO WED MRNG. BEST CHCS
OF SEEING PCPN (AND GETTING THE MOST QPF) IS THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA
WITH THE LEAST CHCS ACRS OUR DELMARVA.

WE PREFER THE GFS MDL OVERALL AS PER ITS COLDER INIT AT H5 WHICH
WASN/T QUITE COLD ENUF. IT DOES GET A BIT FUZZIER WITH ITS SOLN TUE
NGT/WED WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE WRF-NMM OR THE CANADIAN MDLS.
ON THE OTHER HAND THE UKMET/S TIMING AND LOW STRENGTH IS QUITE
SIMILAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
OVRNGT SHRAS HAVE DSIPTED/MOVED ON AND WE WILL START THE DAY DRY.
THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS AFTN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR CU TO
POP, ALTHOUGH THE FCSTD INSTAB AND MSTR IS ALSO SLIGHTLY LESS. THE
MDLS ARE UNDERDOING THE COLD POCKET ALF A BIT BY 1-2C, SO THERE/S
GOING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTAB THAN THEY CUR THINK. THUS WE WILL
KEEP THE SLGT CHC POP GOING FOR TAFTN AS IT SEEMS A LOGICAL
CONCLUSION TO WHAT WE BELIEVE WILL BE A PCPN EVENT, BUT WITH LOW
AREAL COVERAGE. FCSTD TTS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE 1-2C DIF ARE
STILL IN THE HIGH 40S AND UNSTABLE ENUF FOR US TO KEEP THE CHC OF
THUNDER INCLUDED. ENVIRON WINDS BLO 700MB ARE NOT SUPERLY STRONG,
WE/LL JUST HAVE TO KEEP A RADAR EYE OUT IN CASE ANY OF THE TSRAS GET
A BIT ON THE STG SIDE AS THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR AROUND TO EVAP
COOL THE PCPN AND ENHANCE THE ENVIRON WINDS. MOS GUID LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD BASED ON UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS WITH SIM THICK VALUES AND ALSO
FCSTD H8 TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
I UNDERSOLD THE PCPN THIS NIGHT A BIT, BUT SHORT WAVE THIS TIME SHLD
EXIT BEFORE THIS EVE. BESIDE IT HAS TO MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SYS. WE WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MAINLY NW OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST FCSTD OMEGA IS EXPECTED AND ALSO THE DEEPER
MSTR. THERE IS A GOOD JET STRUCTURE ALF TNGT SO MAYBE WE ARE BEING A
BIT TOO STINGY WITH OUR POPS. THE FCSTD ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD IN THE OHIO VALLEY DOES WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
APLCHNS. WE DID NOT ADD THUNDER TNGT IN SPITE OF FCSTD S.I. WHICH
AGAIN GET BLO ZERO. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY UNSTABLE LYR AND WILL
LET DAY SHIFT REASSESS THAT PART OF THE FCST. THINK THE ETA MOS IS
TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPS OVERALL GIVEN THERE MAY BE SOME CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVE.

WE SHIFTED SWD THE PCPN CHCS SLGTLY ON MON MRNG AS PER THE SREF MEAN
QPF AND ALSO MDL FCSTS OF FVRBL DIV Q AND OMEGA THRUT OUR CWA. WE
DID LEAVE OUR FAR SRN ZONES DRY FOR NOW AS PER THE LWR FCSTD RH
LVLS. SOME STG DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL MAKE THE MOS GUID DOABLE. WE
THINK A GFS/ETA MOS COMPROMISE IS THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW PENDING
EITHER SLOWER CLRG OR FASTER CAA.

JUST WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SAFE TO GET BACK INTO THE WATER,
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES TRUCKING ALONG FOR MON NGT. WE INTRO SLGT CHC
POPS JUST IN OUR FAR WRN ZONES BECAUSE OF THE FAST FLOW ALF AND ALSO
LEANS TWD THE SREF MEANS. GUID MINS ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND CONFID IS
NOT HIGH AS IT WILL DEPEND UPON WHEN THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE WILL COMP BTWN THE GFS AND WRF NMM FOR PCPN TIMING ON TUE. THE
GFS IS AT THE FOREFRONT, BUT THE FLOW APPEARS FAST ENUF ALF TO NOT
TOTALLY DISMISS. THE MDL DOES HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES,
SO DID NOT WANT TO BUY IT COMPLETELY. WITH FNTL BOUNDARY TRYING TO
ADVANACE NWD AND 850MB TEMPS APCHG/EXCEEDING 15C THERE IS MUCH ROOM
FOR LARGE MAX TEMP FCST ERRORS. WE DID JUST MINIMAL CHGS TO THE
GRIDS AND FCST BEYOND TUE AND REMAINING PART OF PREV DISCUSSION IS
REPEATED BELOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OF 50 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION(-1C 80H) ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY BKN TO OVC AC/SC LAYER ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CIG WILL BREAK UP A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG WAS KEPT FROM PREVIOUS FCST. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY. A BRIEF SHOWER CANT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES WILL
BECOME MAINLY CLR THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER SUN NIGHT AS A WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW CHC SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KPHL.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE ON THE WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS. A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE MOST PART AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND FRESHENING WINDS TO THE WATERS. LOW END SCA CRITERIA FOR
WINDS POSSIBLE...BUT NO FLAGS WILL BE RAISED ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE
BROOK. THE RATE OF RISE AT THE RIVER IS VERY SLOW AND PER COORD.
WITH THE RFC IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL FALL SHORT OF THE FLOOD STAGE
WHEN IT CRESTS THIS EVENING.

&&

OVERVIEW/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...JAE & TFG
AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...OHARA
MARINE UPDATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
118 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-301730-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
118 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE GOING TO BE DRY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY AROUND 30 PERCENT, DRY FUELS AND
GUSTY WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY CAUSE STREET AND
HIGHWAY FLOODING AND CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THAT AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
DELAWARE VALLEY INTO THE POCONOS AND ACROSS TO THE PASSAIC AND
RARITAN BASINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ014-016>027-PAZ067-070-071-
301730-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
118 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO NAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS ON MONDAY IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE GOING TO BE DRY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY AROUND 30 PERCENT, DRY FUELS AND
GUSTY WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO NAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-301730-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
118 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO NAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

EBERWINE