Coastal Flood Advisory 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.OVERVIEW...
SOMETIMES ONE GETS TO LIVE ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE BLOCK. DOWN THE
ROAD (AS SOON AS TMRW IN PA?) WE MAY HAVE TO PAY FOR THIS. A DVLPG
REX BLOCK IS FCSTD TO PROTECT US FROM MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF THE
STRONG ATLC LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP S OF US AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ONSLAUGHT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. MAINLY CHC
POPS FOR TNGT, THEN A BREEZY COOL DAY FOR SUNDAY. SOME FROST ISSUES
FOR OUTLYING AREAS SUN NGT, THEN NEXT (LOW) PCPN WED NGT INTO THU.
BEST PCPN CHC (BEYOND TNGT) COMES ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY WITH NEXT CFP.

ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO DELVE TOO DEEPLY BEYOND THIS MRNG/S H8 ANLYS TO
SEE TROUBLE FOR THE MIDWEST WITH H8 DEWPTS AS HIGH AS 17C AND A
40-50KT H8 JET FROM TX INTO KS. CLOSER TO HOME INITWISE THE WRF-NMM
LOOKS LIKE IT DID BETTER ALF WHL THE GFS DID BETTER NEAR THE SFC. WE
DID LEAN TWD THE WRF-NMM BECAUSE OF THE ITS BETTER LLVL MSTR
RESOLUTION. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FCST CONFID ALWAYS DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE BATTLE BTWN THE OBVIOUS OCEANIC MOISTURE
SOURCE/TRAJECTORY AND HOW DRY THE NEW AIR MASS WILL BE. SO SKY COVER
FCST CONFID FOR SUN/MON RANGES FROM VERY HIGH IN THE NRN PART OF OUR
CWA (LEAST ONSHR FLOW) TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE SRN PART OF OUR CWA
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING AND LONGER FETCH ONSHR FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE REALLY DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST. IN TERMS OF
PCPN FALLING FROM THE CLOUDS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE IS MORE THAN
EITHER OF THE U.S. MDLS HAVE. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE STREAM
RESOLUTION PBLM SINCE THE ONGOING PCPN TO OUR W IS THE REMNANTS OF A
ONCE STG CLSD LOW AND THEN OVERNIGHT THE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE SINKS
SOUTHWARD AS IF IT WAS WEARING A PAIR OF CONCRETE GALOSHES. THE
FGEN FRCG THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSISTING THAT PCPN IS FCST TO WEAKEN,
BUT TO OUR N QVEC CONV IS FCST TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THAT SHORT
WAVE. SO IT LOOKS WET. THE RUB REMAINS THAT THE AIR MASS OVER US
IS QUITE DRY AND THERE WILL BE EVAP COOLING. PREV FCST OFFERED A
COMP BTWN THESE TWO CONFLICTING FORCES AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
COURSE TO FOLLOW. WE ARE LOATHE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN UP
N BECAUSE OF THE SGT FCSTD DPVA. GRANTED IT MIGHT ARRIVE TOO LATE TO
HAVE MSTR TO LIFT UPWARD. A COUPLE OF THE SREF MEMBERS ARE QUITE
ROBUST WITH PCPN AS THEY INTENSIFY THE LOW PRES FASTER AND ALSO HAVE
IT RETROGRADE FTHR TO THE N. WHILE THIS EXPLAINS THE HIER SREF QPF
AVERAGE...THE RESPONSE IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MDLS. ON THE OTHER HAND OF THE SPECTRUM WE HAVE THE
CANADIAN MODELS CONT THE TREND OF BEING DRIER THAT WE SAW WITH THE
SYSTEMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN THOSE INSTANCES THEY WERE TOO DRY.

WE COMP BTWN THE MOS DATASETS FOR MIN TEMPS. WE BELIEVE THE DVLPG
FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE TOO STRONG TO PERMIT DECOUPLING TO
CONT THRU THE NGT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST IN OUR NRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WERE MDL TIMING DIFS BTWN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS WRT TO ENDING
PCPN. WE DID LEAN TWD THE WRF-NMM (THUS ERLY MRNG CHC FAR S) AS EVEN
THE GFS FCSTD SOME MID LVL QVEC CONV AND OMEGA LATE (MSTR MIGHT BE
THE MITIGATING FACTOR). THEN WE HAVE THE ISSUE OF HOW MUCH MSTR AND
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN. BOTH MDLS BRING A SWATH OF
LLVL MSTR ACRS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA DURG THE DAY ON SUN.
THIS WOULD PERMIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND WE WILL
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER A BIT, ESP IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ETA MOS LOOKS BETTER FOR MIN TEMPS BASED ON FCSTD H8
TEMPS AND ONSHR FLOW NEAR THE COAST.

INCREASING SUBSID AND DRIER AIR FCSTD TO MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN AT
LLVLS SHLD HELP DISPT WHAT CU FORMS ERLY SUN ECE. HI PRES SETTLES
SWD AND WINDS SHLD DECOUPLE. WE HAVE HIER CONFID OF THIS OCRG IN THE
NRN PART OF OUR CWA THAN S. THE NJ PINE BARRENS ANOTHER STG
RADIATING SPOT MIGHT BE SPARED FROST BECAUSE OF THE LATE DEPARTING
GRAD. LATEST MDL TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING SLGTLY MORE GRAD S. WE LEANED
CLOSER TO THE COLDER GFS MOS N AND COMP BTWN THE TWO GUID DATASETS
S.

WITH HIGH PRES GETTER FIRMER IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA THERE MIGHT NOT
BE ENOUGH SUPERLATIVE ADJECTIVES IN A THESAURAUS TO DESCRIBE MON/S
WEATHER...ESP NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. STILL SOME CONCERN ABT OUR FAR
SRN CWA AND ONSHR FLOW, BUT RIGHT NOW MDL FCSTD LLVL MEAN RH IS
PRETTY LOW. ONE OF THOSE RARER TIMES WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE FCSTD
WARM AIR NEAR THE SFC N THAN S IN OUR CWA AND MAX TEMPS WILL REFLECT
THIS. BASED ON FCSTD H8 TEMPS (AND THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
CONSERVATIVE), THE WARMER GFS MOS OVERALL LOOKS BETTER THAN ETA MOS.
SOMETIMES WE MOISTEN AN AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY AND THUS WE WENT WITH
THE COOLER MOS GUID DATASETS FOR MON NGT. THERE MIGHT BE A
SMATTERING OF FROST IN THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED,
KEEPING A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY ALLOWING THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THIS LOW NEVER QUITE PICKS UP ENOUGH STEAM TO
FORCE THE HIGH FROM OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT EDGES
TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN THE NEXT
REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S,
AS WELL AS SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, PUT IN A SCHC FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS BEING AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED THOUGH, AM
SURE THAT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS AND
FORECASTS. THE WEEKEND INITIALLY LOOKS TO START OFF WET BUT NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THIS DICTATES
JUST HOW WET IT WILL BE.

STAYED ALONG THE LINES OF HPC GUIDANCE BUT TWEAKED THE PROGS HERE
AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY A TOUCH
OF CIRRUS AND/OR CU AROUND MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL TERMINALS DURING ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
THIS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST SCOUTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH, ENOUGH LIFT IS GENERATED TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE BEST OMEGA IS FOUND FROM
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH PRESSING SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WE DID
NO INDICATE ANY SHOWERS FOR KABE, KRDG AND KTTN JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FOR AWHILE BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH LATE. FOR KPNE, KPHL AND
KILG, WENT WITH VCSH AS A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE AROUND BUT PLACEMENT
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. BETTER CHC OF SOME SHOWERS IS FOR KMIV AND KACY
THEREFORE PLACED THAT IN THE TAF FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE VISIBILITY MUCH AT
ALL. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

A SEABREEZE AT 1915Z IS MAKING A WESTWARD DRIFT ACROSS OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES, HOWEVER NOT AS MUCH INWARD MOVEMENT IS NOTED
ACROSS ATLANTIC AND CAPE COUNTIES. THIS MAY STILL MAKE IT THROUGH
KACY AND PERHAPS TO KMIV EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTE THAT KACYS
WIND HAS BEEN STEADY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THROUGH. THERE
COULD BE AN INITIAL SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER THE MAIN
GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MARINE AREA, HOWEVER TIMES
WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND THERE MAY BE AN INITIAL SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT HOWEVER THINK THE BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS UP NORTH
MAY BE OVERDONE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THOUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES THE TIGHTEST HERE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. THESE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT APPEARS THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH PRESSES FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, WEAKENING THE OVERALL GRADIENT.

THEREFORE WE WILL UPGRADE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING
FROM LITTLE EGG INLET ON SOUTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP TO THE NORTH AND ALSO FOR DELAWARE WAY. THE GALE WARNING
WILL RUN UNTIL ABOUT 22Z ON SUNDAY, THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL ONLY HEADLINE ONE HAZARD.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM TO OUR SOUTH, THE HEADLINES
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND 9 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES. WAVEWATCH INDICATES SEAS TO 10 FEET AT BUOY
44009 SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS AT 10 OR LESS AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT, HOWEVER
ANY WETTING THAT OCCURS SHOULD NOT BE A LOT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST, A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT PARAMETER WILL EASILY BE MET, AND
THE FUEL MOISTURE IS ALSO WITHIN CRITERIA. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY
BE THE PARAMETER WHICH MAY NOT BE MET IN A WIDESPREAD FASHION. AN
EXAMINATION OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
DEW POINTS TO LOWER TO ABOUT 28-30F SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
PENNSYLVANIA. THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH OUR ANTICIPATED
TEMPERATURES BRINGS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES VERY CLOSE TO 30
PERCENT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL CRITERIA BECOMING MET AND
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS CTP AND BGM, WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES.

FOR NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BE HELD UP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. FUEL
MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD BE WITHIN CRITERIA, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH REGARDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA THRESHOLD.
THEREFORE WILL NOT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.TIDES...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE INBETWEEN THE
FULL AND NEW MOON PHASES AND THE TIDAL DEPARTURES DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALL THAT HIGH ATTM. HOWEVER, WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED, THE TIDAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THAT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND HOW THE
GRADIENT WILL REACT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THEREFORE NO STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450-451.

&&

OVERVIEW/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/TIDES...GORSE

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