Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
350 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW. WORKING IN
TANDEM IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NERN SEABOARD. THIS LOW
PROGGED TO CUT OFF PER GFS/NAM COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO SIT
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT EXTENTION OF WATCH. SEVERE THREAT NOW
COVERS ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH GFS
SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION.
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST
ELONGATES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA, KEEPING COOL H5 TEMPS IN
PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO
PROHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FRIDAY, LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER. LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, TRENDED
WITH LOWER POPS AS SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED, AS H5
LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PROHIBIT INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50KT IN STRONGEST CELLS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-142015-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-
BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
405 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-131830-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-FOREST PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON
PA-LAWRENCE PA-MERCER PA-VENANGO PA-
136 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...ARMSTRONG...INDIANA...BUTLER...JEFFERSON...VENANGO...
FOREST...CLARION...MERCER AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES BY 330 PM.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THEY WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 25 MPH. ALSO, A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION UNTIL 900 PM. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOOK FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.  AND, REMEMBER, ALL
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE DEADLY AND DANGEROUS DUE TO LIGHTNING.

BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

KANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             SHARON                  41.23N 80.50W
06/13/2007  M0.88 INCH       MERCER             PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF SHARON.

&&

RKANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              41.41N 80.38W
06/13/2007                   MERCER             PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0400 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   40.90N 80.85W
06/13/2007  E0.88 INCH       COLUMBIANA         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&