Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ALONG IT. THIS WILL KEEP
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH RADAR SHOWING
A SWATH OF PRECIP CROSS NORTHERN OHIO. CLOUDS FROM THIS
AREA OF PRECIP IS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PA TO
EAST-CENTRAL OHIO. FURTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN
THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...WITH VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. THINK THE FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS REGION TODAY TO KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. THIS MAY
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BUT STILL TRENDED TOWARD WARMER
GFS MOS. NEXT MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OHIO AND MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH CLOSER TO
UPPER SUPPORT MOVING INTO ONTARIO. PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OHIO
AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
TSTMS FOR TONIGHT. WITH BEST LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS NORTH WILL NOT
MENTION IN FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. STILL QUITE HUMID THROUGH
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND UNDER WEAK RIDGE INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND FRONT THEN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING TROUGHING INTO NORTHEAST
U.S AND FRONT TO SHIFT WELL SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN LESS HUMID AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
AS LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON...A MAINLY VFR
CIG FORECAST EXPECTED. SCT MID DECK WITH MAINLY BKN CI AS REMNANTS
FROM DECAYING COMPLEXES MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES TODAY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF COMPLEX. CONSENSUS IS
REMNANTS OF IA...IL COMPLEX WILL CLIP THE AREA TODAY. APPEARS
AS IF SOUTHERN HALF WILL SEE PRECIP WEAKEN AS HEAVIER AREA OF TRW
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW. THIS WILL MEAN MORE
OF A MID DECK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SCT RW- AND TRW-. BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER LINE OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU.
NEXT SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF TRW THROUGH AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI
MORNING. AT THIS TIME MODELS SHOWING THIS SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING
HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND VIS.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

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