Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IS IN SPC SLIGHT RISK SEVERE DAY 1. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITH COMBINATION
OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF
THURSDAY. SPC SLIGHT RISK DAY 2 LINES UP ALONG FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNTIL FRONT CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMTS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN SOME
SPOTS AS STORMS SLOWLY AND POSSIBLY REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
INTO TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND WE GET
INTO A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY. PRE-FROPA WINDS
23008KT SHIFTING TO 30010KTS AS FRONT PASSES.

FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION PCPN MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

OHZ040-041-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-030-032-WVZ001-002-
281700-
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-
BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ001-OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069-PAZ031-WVZ003-004-012-021>023-
041-281700-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-
NOBLE-MONROE-GREENE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-
TUCKER-
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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