Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN THAT WILL
BE ADDRESSED.

STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO THE PAH FA AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MID OHIO VALLEYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
AROUND THESE PARTS...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN LIQUID AND FROZEN A COUPLE OF TIMES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW.

DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOS CONSISTENT...BUT
IMHO IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT STREAMS THE MOISTURE/PRECIP INTO THE
REGION A FEW HOURS TOO EARLY. CONSEQUENTLY THE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK A
BIT TOO HIGH. ASIDE FROM THE TIMING TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE FROZEN GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM DEXTER MISSOURI TO MARION ILLINOIS. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THIS LINE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID. FROM 06-12Z FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO ROCKPORT INDIANA. WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF .10-.25
INCHES EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...COULD SEE SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY
ACCORDINGLY.

FROM 12-18Z SATURDAY THE WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINS TO
LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
WE GET A DECREASE OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE DRY SLOT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PRODUCE DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT
CARMEL ILLINOIS TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD. EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE RAIN. FROM 18-00Z
SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...PRECIP BEGINS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. BY 00Z FROZEN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS TO
NEW MADRID MISSOURI. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTER PRECIPITATION...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO BENTON KENTUCKY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.

THE 00-06Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE
LOT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN QPF AMOUNTS. IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WEST
OF THIS AREA WHERE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW...6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS VARY
FROM .10 TO .40 INCHES. SINCE MOST THE MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD THE
LESSER AMOUNT...I HAVE OPTED FOR LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT
TIME. IF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY LATCH TO THE HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED. FROM 06-12Z
AS THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...PRECIP WILL BE ALL
SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST SWATH OF QPF W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA.

MAY SEE A LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PRECIPITATIN FROM THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THSI SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN MAY BE
MIXED WITH SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS
TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL THEN KEEP THE
REGION DRY THROUGH DAY SEVEN. WHEW

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS LIFTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS KPAH AND KCGI...BUT REMAIN AT
KEVV AND KWOB THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THEM BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
BTWN 20Z AND 21Z. THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STORM
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS
SHOULD DROP TO 12000 FT BY 06Z. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AT KCGI AROUND
09Z...AND A LITTLE LATER AT THE REST OF THE SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY FOR PENNYRILE REGION EAST OF LAKES.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT FOR PERRY COUNTY MISSOURI.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT FOR JACKSON...PERRY...
FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...HAMILTON...WAYNE...WHITE...EDWARDS...AND
WABASH COUNTIES.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT FOR GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY
...VANDERBURGH...WARRICK...AND SPENCER COUNTIES.
&&

PUBLIC...JAP/CW
AVIATION...CW

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