Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THREAT IMMEDIATE CONCERN WITH FROST/FREEZE LATER IN THE WEEK.

LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD
ILLINOIS WITH A THE COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH ST LOUIS
TO JUST EAST SPRINGFIELD MO. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND 18Z UA FROM BNA
AND SGF RUNS INDICATE SOME CAPPING ALTHOUGH IT IS EASILY BROKEN WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH. RADAR INDICATES HAIL WITH THE EXISTING STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH A
COUPLE STORMS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL OF COURSE BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF STORMS. THE LATEST LAPS RUNS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE QUAD STATE HAS LIFTED INDEX -8...CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG.
THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT THE GREATEST FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHEN YOU CONSIDER ALL SEVERE PARAMETERS
COMBINED.

NEXT CONCERN AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR FROST/FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS COVERED IN THE HWO AND WILL
NOT HEADLINE ANYTHING UNTIL THE SEVERE THREAT IS OUT OF THE FA. AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ADVERTISING COLD/FREEZING
TEMPS. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO STABILIZE FROM RUN TO RUN. AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MODELS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
431 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041015-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
431 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY EXTENDING INTO
THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH WITH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE
STORMS.

BY 700 PM...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF A MCLEANSBORO ILLINOIS TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI LINE. ALL OF THE
STORMS WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER
VALLEY. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A HARD FREEZE...ALONG WITH FROST...IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE LOWER WABASH RIVER.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING.

SPODEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MURPHYSBORO             37.77N 89.34W
04/03/2007  E0.00 INCH       JACKSON            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MURPHYSBORO HAS SOME STREET FLOODING

&&

DLL/MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
511 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
04/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL/MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
513 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             2 SW EVANSVILLE         37.96N 87.57W
04/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL/MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
514 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             3 NNW CARRIER MILLS     37.73N 88.65W
04/03/2007  E0.88 INCH       SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL/MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
04/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL/MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
518 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             1 S MARBLE HILL         37.29N 89.98W
04/03/2007  E1.25 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTS

&&

DLL/MJN