Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST A COUNTY OR SO
WEST OF THE AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. THEY ARE
MOVING NORTH...AND DO NOT POSE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A MINOR DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA...WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT IN THE MVN/EVV/OWB AREAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ON THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...BUT IT COULD STILL BE
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS PROBABLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM...AS POTENTIAL REMNANT VORTICITY CENTERS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...FLIRT WITH OUR AREA. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE GFS IS MORE LIBERAL AND EARLIER
THAN THE NAM...NO BIG SURPRISE THERE. GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE MAV...TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE MET IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH 40 POPS WEST TAPERING OFF TO
20S IN THE KHOP AREA.

STILL SEE LITTLE REASON FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...SAVE A MINOR RIPPLE IN STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DO SPIT OUT A BIT A QPF. POPS WILL LOOK
ALOT LIKE TODAYS WITH BEST CHANCES WEST AND SLIGHTS SOUTHEAST.

THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO BRING THE
MAIN ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO WESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY 06Z. SEE NO
REASON TO BACK OFF THIS SCENARIO NOW...SO BROKE POPS UP INTO 6
HOURLIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THEN WILL HAVE LIKELIES IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN RAPIDLY CLEAR IT OUT
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIKELIES ONLY IN THE KHOP AREA.

AS FOR SEVERE...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF FOR
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. WIND FIELDS WILL BE
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING BEFORE THEY GET
TOO FAR INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS
PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE IN THE
GRIDS OR ZONES AT THIS TIME. WILL ADDRESS IN THE HWO AS USUAL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE
SURFACE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. MILD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY
MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT TRIES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS
STILL ON TRACK WITH THIS FRONT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER
CHOICE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FIGURING THAT
THE MODELS ARE TOO PESSIMISTIC IN THEIR CLOUD FORECASTS. STAYED
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
120 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST
OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER 4 PM...AND THEN
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THEY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF A MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD
KENTUCKY LINE.

PS