Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS /0-6 HOUR TIME FRAME/ IN THE
GRIDDED/TABULAR/GRAPHICS AND SELECTED TEXT PRODUCTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT CURRENT AND POTENTIAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E/MORE
UNSTABLE AIR ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE.
I LEFT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THROUGH 02Z /9
PM/...AND EXPANDED THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ALONG THE
I-64 CORRDIDOR IN SOUTHERN IL...SWRN IN AND A SMALL PART OF THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE EXTENT OF THE HEAT
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WHEN AND WHERE TO PLACE LOW POPS.

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...OUR CWA WAS STILL SITTING UNDER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF A SEMI-PERMANENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOMED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...AND THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM WAS NOT FAR FROM MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

REGARDING NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES...DIDNT MIX OUT AS
WELL AS WE HAD HOPED TODAY...SO HAD TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO MIXING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO WONT BE SURPRISED IF WE MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
JUST IN CASE TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
ETC...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE WHAT TO DO.

AS A DECENT LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...IT WILL SUPPRESS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THUS ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA STARTING TONIGHT...WITH THE CHANCES MIGRATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING FRIDAY
DRY...HOWEVER MODELS VARY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GFS WANTS TO HANG IT UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AND
BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEREAS THE NAM/WRF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS THE
REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CERTAINLY
LOOKS REASONABLE ENOUGH...WILL GO WITH THE CONCENSUS AND KEEP IT DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A MOIST FLOW...SO WILL KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NOT BECOME
A REALITY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN SCHC POPS JUST IN CASE.

AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS FORMATION WILL BE HIGHER ON
THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAP/SMITH
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...MY/CN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-162045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
333 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 AND MODEST
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100
AND 105 THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE.

THE HEAT...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...THE HEAT...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A STRAY
STORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA.

SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS A MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE
QUAD STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS/JAP

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