Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS DIURNALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING WITH
MAINLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLD SMALL HAIL/WIND. EXPECT MORE OF
SAME IN HIGHER THETA-E FETCH ALONG/JUST EAST OF CROWLEYS RIDGE...AT
LEAST UNTIL FUELING MECHANISM WANES THIS EVENING. BY 06Z MOST ALL
ECHOES SHOULD BE GONE BUT BETTER MOISTURE INCOMING FROM WEST KEEPS
SMALL CHC PCPN MENTION WRN SEMO THRU THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER DAY LIKE TODAY EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
BETTER OVERALL POPS GIVEN NEARING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALBEIT STILL
PRE FRONTAL. NEAR PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY BY TOMORROW NIGHT KEEPS CHC
CAT POPS GOING EVEN W/LOSS OF DIURNAL FUEL...THEN PEAK POP STILL
ANTICIPATED W/BOUNDARY ITSELF THU...WELL INTO LIKELY CAT MOST
LOCALES. NEW GFS SUGGESTS SLOWER FROPA WITH CATAFRONTIC ACTIVITY BUT
COLLAB YIELD IS PEAKING POP ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...SO WE BEGIN TO
DIMINISH POPS FRI NORTH TO SOUTH...BECOMING DRY FORECAST BY SAT TO
ALLOW FOR SLOWING/STALLING MOVEMENT ALONG/THRU SRN PTNS FA AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTIZED LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

RAIN DEFICITS STILL RUNNING ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 BLO CLIMO WELL
COULD APPROACH NORMAL BY END OF WEEK GIVEN HIGH PWS. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE TO BE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH
ISOLD SMALL HAILERS/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NAM/MAV BLEND WORKING NICELY WITH PERSISTENCE/COLLAB ON TEMP NOS.
UNDER MOS VIA COLLABD ENDING POPS WITH SYSTEM PASSAGE FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EARLIER 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...FOLLOWED THE MINIMALIST APPROACH
USED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCES...LIMITING VCTS TO EACH OF THE
SITES...UNTIL TOWERING CU DEVELOPED NEAR EACH SITE AND AMENDING AS
THUNDERSTORMS TARGET EACH LOCATION.

UNLIKE SUNDAY...MOST OF THE CONVECTION NEAR EACH TAF SITE SHOULD
DIMINISH CLOSE TO 00Z. AFTER 00Z...KEEP BROKEN MID CLOUD
DECK...GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-15KFT OVERNIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT PRESENTED IN THE TAF SITES UNTIL 16-18Z TIME
FRAME ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
422 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SCATTERED MAINLY HEAT OF THE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
RELAY OF ANY ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

DRS