Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AS A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVE TOWARD
THE HEARTLAND THIS EVENING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN ON
THE INCREASE. IN FACT...SURFACE TEMPS ARE NEAR 70 IN SE MO. IN
ADDITION...POTENT SHORT WAVE IS MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN AR AND MO.
STILL EXPECT CHC OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
COMES EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...MAIN FACTOR
PROHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME IS AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER/TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SE MO AND WRN KY.
18Z RUC MODEL GRADUALLY ERODES THIS CAP AROUND SUNSET...SO COULD
STILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STORMS THIS EVENING IN SE
MO AND WRN KY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING DECENT WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 50KTS ANT 700 MB/10000 FT.
FORECAST WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. THUS...IF A
CLUSTER OF STORMS DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...COULD
BE SOME HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND.

EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (LIKELY) OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER. MODELS STILL
INDICATING A BIT OF INSTABILITY THERE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...SO ADDED
A CHANCE OF THUNDER. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE VERY
SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION...BUT ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS...A WIND SHIFT AND
SHOT OF CHILLY AIR (NORTHEAST COUNTIES) AS ANOTHER HIGH NOSES SOUTH
FROM CANADA THU. THIS NEXT HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGIONS
WEATHER...KEEPING IT DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR FRI AS THE HIGH
SLIPS EAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL TRYING TO PUSH A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
NOW INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL WIND UP OVER THE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN VERY STRONG MID LVL LOW INTO THE REGION. WIND FIELDS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD CHC OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. MID LVL JET/DRY PUNCH WILL ADD TO THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IF A SQUALL LINE DOES DEVELOP. OF
COURSE...THIS IS WAY OUT IN TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL
CHANGES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW DAYS LEADS US TO A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN USUAL GIVEN THE LENGTH IN TIME OUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MEFFERT

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