Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REACH WEST PORTIONS OF
THE PAH FORECAST AREA TOWARD 10Z.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA ARE IN TORNADO WATCH 365 UNTIL 12Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP
ERODING ACROSS THE PAH FA BY 12Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY TRYING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  SPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. THIS
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH 12Z...BUT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH
FORECAST LIS ACROSS THE PAH FA OF -3 TO -5.  NAM CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAN GFS...WITH THE
FRONT STILL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA BY 00Z SATURDAY.

BASED ON SLOWER NAM SOLUTION...LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  BOTH NAM
AND GFS SHOW PRECIP JUST TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED
WITH DRY FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY...THEN BACKED OFF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR JUST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS TODAY...LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET VALUES FOR NORTHWEST HALF
OF FA...AND TOWARD WARMER MAV FOR SOUTHEAST HALF.  FOR THE REST OF
THE NEAR USED MORE OF COMPROMISE OF MAV/MET.  IN THE EXTENDED...MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST MEX AND FOR BLENDING PURPOSES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT KCGI BY 12Z AND KPAH AND
KEVV BY 18Z.  MOST CEILINGS SHOULD BE MVFR...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RST
AVIATION...KES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-090930-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
422 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE ON AND OFF CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

RST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ILZ080-084-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-081000-
PERRY IL-JACKSON-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINCKNEYVILLE...CARBONDALE...
MURPHYSBORO...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD
233 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 365 CONTINUES UNTIL 7 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 7 AM. THE TORNADO WATCH STRETCHES
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TAMAROA AND CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS...ONWARD TO CAPE GIRARDEAU AND DEXTER MISSOURI.

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD
THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST NEAR 25 MPH...THEY WILL
REACH PARTS OF NORTHWEST CARTER COUNTY MISSOURI AROUND 5
AM...REACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH AROUND 7 AM.

AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THEY HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
MAY REACH NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES.

PERSONS LIVING OR TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR ANY FURTHER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS THIS MORNING.

SMITH