Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING IN PM HEAT MAINLY JUST EAST OF PAH
FA...WHERE SPC RECENTLY PUT OUT SVR WATCH 349 TIL 01Z. ISOLD
ACTIVITY ALSO DULY NOTED ALONG RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE/ENHANCED CU
FIELD ACROSS HEART OF FA. BEST SVR THREAT IS DEEPER INTO COLD
POOL...IE NERN PTNS FA. HAVE MODIFIED ALL WX/POP GRIDS TO COVER THRU
SUNSET...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL FUEL WL BE LOST AND WEAKENING/
DIMINISHING SHOULD OCCUR IN DRYING COLUMN.

WED-THU STILL LOOK DRY...AND MODELS ARE EVEN COMING AROUND TO THAT
NOTION...KEEPING ISENTROPIC LIFT/BEST WAA QPF MENTION TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST NOW. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PERSISTENCE
STRATEGY DRY FORECAST WED-THU.

NEXT SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST W/SPC SLGT RISK SVR ACCOMPANYING SAID
TRANSLATION ACROSS PAH FA...MAINLY FRI...W/INTRODUCTORY POP NOW
LOOKING TO HAVE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON COMING IN LATE THU NIGHT.

LATEST GFS/DGEX ACTUALLY DRIVE FRONT THRU BY FRI NIGHT...W/RESULTANT
DRY/SLIGHTLY COOLER POST FRONTAL WX FORECAST FOR SAT. WELL BUY
W/SOME SKEPTICISM...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON EXACTLY
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYS OUT...THIS TIME GOING JUST SOUTH OF FA. FROM
THERE...DAYS 6-7 WE FOLLOW GFS/HPC LEAD AND REINTRODUCE A MAINLY
DIURNALLY AIDED POP FOR ENERGY RIDING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BATTLING
THE RISING MS VALLEY HEIGHTS...THINKING SMALL POP WARRANTED IN THE
MORE SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS.

MOS AND HPC GENERALLY ACCEPTED W/THE USUAL MINOR TWEEKS INTO THE
COLLAB PIC.

.AVIATION...
VIS SAT PICS INDICATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH RADAR
SHOWING ECHOES DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VCSH IN TAFS
BUT WILL AMEND FOR A TEMPO GROUP ALL THREE SITES...AS PER CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND WW. OTHERWISE DONT EXPECT MUCH AFTER SUNSET WITH
WINDS GOING VARIABLE AND MOST CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DISSIPATING W/LOSS
OF FUEL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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