Freeze Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AT EARLY MORNING A LARGE POLAR VORTEX CONTINUED TO CHURN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS VORTEX...A LOBE OF
VORTICITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL RH HAD PRODUCED A
SOUTHWARD MOVING LAYER OF STRATO-CU WHOSE LEADING EDGE IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. MODELS
HAVENT HANDLED SOME OF THESE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS THAT WELL
LATELY...SO ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS DECK MAKING IT ANY
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL BRING IT ACROSS THE CWA...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES IT OUT. SOME WEAK
RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL IL BUT NO PRECIP SHOWING UP IN
OBS DUE TO VERY DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES STARTING NEXT TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE HERE AND NOW IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT (SAT NIGHT) AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS THE WARMER NAM/WRF 2 METER TEMPERATURES WORKED
OUT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOS NUMBERS...DONT THINK THAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. FOR EXAMPLE...CURRENT TEMPS ARE
ALREADY WHERE THE NAM/WRF SAYS THEY SHOULD BE AT 12Z THIS MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE UP A BIT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS STILL
UPSTREAM. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE AFOREMENTIONED LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH WOULD HAVE THE TENDENCY TO KEEP TEMPS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.

GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON TONIGHTS LOWS LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A SURE
BET. THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR ANY CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT CALM...AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS COMBINATION SETS THE STAGE FOR THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT
OF THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CHANGE FREEZE WATCH
TONIGHT TO FREEZE WARNING...AND ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEY SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO WILL
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD.

MODELS BEGIN BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS OVER MY WESTERN
COUNTIES DONT SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY...SO
RAISED POPS A LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES
BEYOND SIXTH PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY ALL COUNTIES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING ALL
     COUNTIES.

MO...FREEZE WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY ALL COUNTIES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING ALL
     COUNTIES.

IL...FREEZE WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY ALL COUNTIES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING ALL
     COUNTIES.

IN...FREEZE WARNING 11 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY ALL COUNTIES.

     FREEZE WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING ALL
     COUNTIES.

&&

JAP

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