Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 140228
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
816 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

MOC023-181-207-140500-
STODDARD MO-BUTLER MO-RIPLEY MO-
816 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR
RIPLEY...BUTLER AND STODDARD COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 815 PM CST...OFFICIALS IN STODDARD...BUTLER...AND RIPLEY COUNTIES 
REPORTED WATER OVER NUMEROUS STATE AND COUNTY ROADS ACROSS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. SOME ROADS HAD HIGH WATER SIGNS IN ALREADY 
IN PLACE. 

BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA 
THROUGH 800 PM. THE RAIN FALL WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO 
ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE 
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. PONDING OF WATER ON 
ROADWAYS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
...PUXICO...POPLAR BLUFF...FISK...DEXTER...BLOOMFIELD.


LAT...LON 3681 9112 3681 9067 3692 9068 3692 9025
      3701 9015 3705 9015 3706 8997 3713 8996
      3713 8979 3707 8979 3694 8971 3663 8972
      3663 9015 3660 9020 3650 9023 3649 9113

$$

KH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MANY CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE...BUT EVERYTHING SUGGEST THE GOING
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH ITS
GREATER SENSITIVITY TO THE LOW LEVELS. THAT SAID...DID NOT THROW OUT
THE GFS COMPLETELY.

WITH EVERYTHING GOING ON...WILL TRY TO ADDRESS EACH PARAMETER
INDIVIDUALLY.

STARTING WITH THUNDER. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. 0-3KM MUCAPE WAS USED ALONG WITH 30+ K INDEX VALUES TO
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. PLUS THERE ARE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES ON
THE NAM OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...KEPT
THUNDER MENTIONED EVERYWHERE BUT THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AGAIN
FOLLOWING K INDEX VALUES AND MUCAPE. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS ALL FAVORABLE INDICES SUGGEST ANY THUNDER WILL
BE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM WAS GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE.

HEAVY RAINFALL...LOOKED AT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY PROCEDURES AND
THEY SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS THE WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50 KTS THIS EVENING WITH
SPEED AND SOME DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WITH RAIN INCREASING
AND INTENSIFYING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY SET UP ALONG A CGI-EVV LINE BY 00Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY WHICH WILL AID IN THE
LIFT. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION...LOOKED AT BOTH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
THICKNESSES FOR THIS FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE 33 AT UNO AND 37 AT POF AND SAR WAS AT 34.
WITH THE WAVE COMING UP AT US THIS EVENING WE FEEL THAT THE WARMER
AIR WILL WIN OUT OVER OUR CWA. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LITTLE COLD AIR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. AS THE
MAIN WAVE PASSES TOMORROW NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL START TO ADVECT
IN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE A LIGHT MIXTURE AS SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. BY THE TIME
THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT IS LEAVING.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL WAIT
FOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY...WHICH SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. LATEST GFS RUN HAD AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR
REGION ON FRIDAY...WHICH THE ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE. THUS HAVE KEPT
THE 4-7 DAY PERIOD DRY.

WENT WITH COLDER ETA MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.

&&

SPODEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
353 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
353 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 MORE INCHES WILL ADD TO
WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONLY HEIGHTENS
THIS THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...FOR A STORM TOTAL FORECAST OF 3 TO
6 INCHES. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA
RIVERS...REFER TO THOSE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF LIGHT
WINTRY WEATHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATION
IS A POSSIBILITY BEFORE IT ENDS MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.