Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

.UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...PRIMARILY RAISING
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND LOWERING
POPS ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY...AT LEAST DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BLOWING DUST WAS ALSO ADDED
TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN NORTHEAST
TOMORROW... AND WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY OF TRANQUIL WEATHER.

THE NEXT MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS AGAIN THE MODEL OF CHOICE
FOR THIS FORECAST... EXCEPT FOR THE PROBABLY-TOO-FAR-SOUTH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY... SOMEWHERE...
THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION... ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE... MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE STORM ON FRIDAY ARE A
BIT SLOWER... SUGGESTING THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE STORM
DEPARTS ON SATURDAY... THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE TRICKY TODAY... PARTICULARLY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ASSUMING THAT THE WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED... AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH. AND... OF COURSE...
THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THAT FAR OUT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING OVER OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES... BUT SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME QUITE STRONG THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  68  44  65 /  60  10  10  20
HOBART OK         41  68  44  69 /  30  10  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  72  48  74 /  30  10  10  20
GAGE OK           34  67  37  63 /  40  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     41  65  41  61 /  40  10  10  20
DURANT OK         52  71  48  72 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
345 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO
CHICKASHA TO ATOKA...AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
ELEVATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN TO BE INVOLVED IN SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
AT MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA HAD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ELEVATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM PUSHES A DRY LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND... POSSIBLY INCLUDING PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

15/11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             2 E TABLER              35.05N 97.78W
04/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       GRADY              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ON HWY 62

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             VANOSS                  34.77N 96.87W
04/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       PONTOTOC           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             3 W NORMAN              35.22N 97.50W
04/10/2007  E0.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

OKZ047-110130-
JOHNSTON OK-
820 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JOHNSTON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF MILL CREEK AT 820
PM CDT...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN JOHNSTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
838 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             ADA                     34.78N 96.66W
04/10/2007  E1.00 INCH       PONTOTOC           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

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