Severe Thunderstorm Warning 647, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
832 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

.UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF AIDED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING N OF STRONG COLD FRONT. 00Z
OUN SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY... 1000-1500 J/KG
FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR - UP TO 95 KT IN 0-6KM LAYER - WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING. FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT PER MODEL QPFS... ALTHOUGH MODE MAY
TREND TOWARD LESS CONVECTION AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST/GRIDS HAVE CURRENT TRENDS REFLECTED
WELL. WE WILL ONLY MAKE SOME RELATIVELY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS
TIME... TO ADD MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE CURRENT
ACTIVE CORRIDOR FROM LAWTON TO W/N OF OKC TO E OF ENID.

STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT SFC ACROSS MAINLY SW
QUADRANT OF OK AS 40-50KT WINDS AT 1 KM AGL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN IN
STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. SEVERAL GUSTS 40-48 MPH BEING
SEEN ON OK MESONET AND FROM SEVERAL METARS. WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  48  41  58 / 100  80  30  20
HOBART OK         43  50  40  62 /  90  60  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  44  51  41  62 /  80  60  20   0
GAGE OK           41  55  41  63 /  40  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  50  39  59 /  90  80  40  30
DURANT OK         52  52  44  59 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ012-016>019-021>025-
     027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

22/24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
828 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

OKZ023-220200-
CADDO OK-
828 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF ALBERT AND 9
MILES SOUTH OF FORT COBB AT 828 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
LOCATIONS AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE BINGER...GRACEMONT...FORT COBB...AND
WASHITA.

BURKE

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