Severe Thunderstorm Warning 576, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA... THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AREA THIS AFTN. SHOULD CONT TO SEE EROSION OF
THESE CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS
STRATUS REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT LINGERING INTO
THU MORNING. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
AS LLJ/WAA DEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS ON THU/THU NIGHT IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FLOW. WILL
KEEP FRI AND MUCH OF SAT DRY AS STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO PACIFIC NW.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. 12Z GFS DOES SLOW WAVE DOWN
A LITTLE... BUT DOES KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING WELL NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GFS BRINGS SFC FRONT INTO NW OK SAT NIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. WILL INCREASE PARTS OF THE
AREA TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE... BUT ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CONUS. AT THIS TIME MOST CONT TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS RECEIVING A GLANCING BLOW. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC BOUNDARIES PENETRATING INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALLING AND
WASHING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF OK/N TX... WHICH WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MOST PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         62  87  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           57  86  60  87 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  85  57  86 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         65  87  62  87 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1144 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING...AND A LACK OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT MOST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD
BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LATER TONIGHT...A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS THAT
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AGAIN...THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY SEP 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SHEAR...ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND THEN INTERACT WITH A SECOND STORM SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS INTERACTION WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

CJS/BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

OKZ052-262030-
BRYAN OK-
251 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AT
250 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN...REDUCING VISIBILITY. SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM ALBANY
TO WADE...SOUTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

OKZ009-014-262315-
ROGER MILLS OK-ELLIS OK-
535 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF ARNETT AT 535 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             1 S SHATTUCK            36.26N 99.88W
09/26/2007  E1.75 INCH       ELLIS              OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE REPORTED COVERING GROUND JUST
            SOUTH OF SHATTUCK. WINDSHIELDS DESTROYED. ONE PERSON
            CAUGHT OUTSIDE RECEIVED MINOR INJURIES FROM THE HAIL.

&&