Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP IN MOISTURE AXIS TODAY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE FA. MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AXIS /2000-3500 CAPE ON LAPS ANALYSIS/
CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS
THIS AFTN. SFC OBS ALSO SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN
THE PANHANDLES. THIS CONVERGENCE... HEATING IN THE INSTABILITY SOUTH
OF AREA... AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK CLOSER TO THE FORCING OF THE
TROUGH... MAY BE AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN/EVENING
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOME LATER TONIGHT. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MAINLY DUE TO HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WESTERN U.S. COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK AND FINALLY MOVE NORTH SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE TX OR LA COAST. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THE POSITION WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH BUT COULD PULL
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS SHOWING THIS TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE FA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  88  68  89 /  40  20  20  10
HOBART OK         69  88  68  90 /  30  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  89  68  91 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           64  88  67  90 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  84  67  88 /  50  20  20  10
DURANT OK         69  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH ACROSS
MAINLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE... A
DEEP LAYER PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONLY MODEST VALUES OF
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR OCCURRING IN MOST AREAS... ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER
INSTABILITIES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY SEP 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

OKZ023-038-181900-
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-
135 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHERN CADDO AND NORTHERN
COMANCHE COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APACHE AT 135
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

TXZ085-086-088-089-182000-
WILBARGER TX-WICHITA TX-ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-
235 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER...BAYLOR...WICHITA
AND WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF LAKE DIVERSION AT
235 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL... WINDS AROUND
40 MPH... AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ARCHER...BAYLOR...WICHITA AND WILBARGER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

TXZ088-089-182030-
ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-
320 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE DIVERSION
AT 320 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL... WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN ARCHER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30