Severe Thunderstorm Warning 563, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
WHERE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND WEAK LIFT WITH WAVE
OVER PANHANDLE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SO A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT LAY FROM
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AS AREAS AS DAYTIME HEATING MAXIMIZES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS AT LEVELS USUALLY SEEN IN JUNE. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ASSIST IN LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. STEERING WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME TRAINING ALONG THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED FRONT LATER TODAY.

MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DAY WITH RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT
ALSO, LATE IN THE DAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE RESIDENT
AIRMASS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER MONDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH
THE AIRMASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT THE WESTERLIES SHOULD
ALSO MOVE THIS FRONT QUICKLY SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  82  66  80  57 /  30  30  40  20
HOBART OK         81  65  81  56 /  70  40  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  69  87  61 /  60  40  30  30
GAGE OK           77  60  73  48 /  30  30  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     85  64  77  53 /  20  30  50  20
DURANT OK         87  69  85  61 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORMS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THEREFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY SEP 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG EARLY FALL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SQUALL LINE
OR BROKEN SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM MONDAY.

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

OKZ033-TXZ083-091845-
HARMON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
108 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN AND HARMON
COUNTIES.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES
NORTH OF GOULD TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAZARE AT 108 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 PM CDT SUN SEP 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW GOODLETT          34.35N 99.93W
09/09/2007                   HARDEMAN           TX   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS US HWY 287. REPORT RELAYED VIA WFO
            LBB. 2.61 INCHES MEASURED AT GOODLETT MESONET SITE IN ONE
            HOUR.

&&

FM

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