Severe Thunderstorm Warning 477, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE FOCUS FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS TO THE WEST MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AS MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

AS MID LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONVECTION WILL GIVE OTHER AREAS A BETTER
CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA NEAR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.

APPEARS BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP THEN POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF AREA
GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
MAY BE IN STORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  89  72  88 /  60  40  40  20
HOBART OK         74  92  72  89 /  50  30  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  93  73  92 /  40  30  40  40
GAGE OK           71  90  68  87 /  60  20  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  89  69  86 /  70  50  40  20
DURANT OK         74  88  73  91 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
455 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF OKLAHOMA DOWN TO THE RED RIVER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 10
PM... BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
PROPERTY DAMAGE FROM 70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLFBALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...
EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... WITH MAXIMUM
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE WEAK. THIS COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR...
BUT WEAK WIND SHEAR... WILL FAVOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE
STRONG PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL FORM...
INTENSIFY... PEAK... AND THEN COLLAPSE RELATIVELY QUICKLY. DURING
THEIR SHORT LIFE CYCLES... THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH AND HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

BY EARLY TO MID EVENING... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO LARGER
LINES AND CLUSTERS. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE ON A LARGER SCALE... THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LASTING MULTICELL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. THE VAST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE SUGGESTS THAT... EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE COOLING AND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW... THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
FLOODING OF MAINLY POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST... BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TUESDAY... AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING... MAIN-STEM RIVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATE WEEK...WHICH WILL IMPACT
ALREADY FULL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

24

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