Severe Thunderstorm Warning 463, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE FOCUS FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS TO THE WEST MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE AS MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

AS MID LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONVECTION WILL GIVE OTHER AREAS A BETTER
CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA NEAR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.

APPEARS BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF
ORGANIZED COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP THEN POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF AREA
GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
MAY BE IN STORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  89  72  88 /  60  40  40  20
HOBART OK         74  92  72  89 /  50  30  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  93  73  92 /  40  30  40  40
GAGE OK           71  90  68  87 /  60  20  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     72  89  69  86 /  70  50  40  20
DURANT OK         74  88  73  91 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATION...
NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... OR GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE FROM 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND ONE-INCH DIAMETER
HAIL. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE... MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A WIND SHIFT LINE WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS... THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE
LATER TODAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE
INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... NEAR A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY... DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK. WHILE
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE-LEVEL WINDS AND HAIL...
THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
FLOODING OF MAINLY POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA... WITH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST... BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TUESDAY... AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
REGION... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING... MAIN-STEM RIVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATE WEEK...WHICH WILL IMPACT
ALREADY FULL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

CJS

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