Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WILL
BE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED OR PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN
6-7K CAPES...HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK WIND SHEAR...MAIN THREAT WILL BE GIANT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EARLY
STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SURGING SOUTHEAST.

OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW...FORECAST WILL BE
DRY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH DAY SEVEN AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  71  93 /  50  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  92  71  94 /  50  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  92  72  95 /  40  40  10  10
GAGE OK           69  91  69  94 /  50  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  89  71  93 /  50  30  10  10
DURANT OK         74  90  72  93 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
550 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALTUS... TO
ARDMORE ...TO DURANT.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND LAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATES... AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. A NEGATIVE
FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A WEAK TO MODERATE
CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WEAKEST OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THUS...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WITH THIS
BEING SAID...IF A COMPLEX OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH
OUTFLOW TONIGHT...STORMS COULD SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NEAR ALVA AND CHEROKEE...SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY
AND SEMINOLE...IS THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS
EVENING. LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAND THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX...AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO OVERCOME THE NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ALL AREAS IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA STAND A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO OUR OUTLOOK IF THIS THINKING
CHANGES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
IN AREAS WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             10 WNW CARRIER          36.53N 98.18W
06/19/2007  E0.25 INCH       ALFALFA            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>