Severe Thunderstorm Warning 415, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS WILL
BE FOR MAINLY ISOLATED OR PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN
6-7K CAPES...HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK WIND SHEAR...MAIN THREAT WILL BE GIANT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EARLY
STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SURGING SOUTHEAST.

OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW...FORECAST WILL BE
DRY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH DAY SEVEN AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  89  71  93 /  50  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  92  71  94 /  50  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  92  72  95 /  40  40  10  10
GAGE OK           69  91  69  94 /  50  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  89  71  93 /  50  30  10  10
DURANT OK         74  90  72  93 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
143 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALTUS... TO
ARDMORE ...TO DURANT.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND LAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATES... AND PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY LASTING
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.  THE VERY HUMID AIR IS RESULTING IN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR WOODWARD...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WATONGA...OKLAHOMA
CITY AND SEMINOLE. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND CAPPING OF WARM AIR ALOFT DECREASES SLIGHTLY.
ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IS WEAK...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT
RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THEY WOULD LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST.  VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN THE STORMS WOULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

LATER IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO
THE WEST OF OKLAHOMA.  STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE
EVENING WILL CARRY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTHEAST.  VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER THEN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT.  THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS. A
KEY ELEMENT THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX IS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OR TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO SUCH DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES OR OTHER UPPER
AIR DATA... SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STORMS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL EVOLVE LATE TODAY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
IN AREAS WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ012-192200-
GARFIELD OK-
444 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HILLSDALE AT 444 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS STORM WILL CURRENTLY BE CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING
AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ENID...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ006-007-192200-
ALFALFA OK-GRANT OK-
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND GRANT COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON TO 5 MILES EAST OF GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE AT 447 PM CDT.
THE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER... STORM INTENSITY IS
INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA AND GRANT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

OKZ005-192245-
WOODS OK-
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPRON AT 520
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN WOODS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

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