Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.UPDATE...
MORNING CONVECTION DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS WE AWAIT
REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST. AREA WILL CONT TO RECEIVE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE CREATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTN SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN SECTIONS AND UPPER
LOW WILL CONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS ESE INTO WEST TX. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OK SOUTH
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OR TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL NEED TO LOOK AS FLOOD
WATCH FOR PARTS OF AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.

NOT MANY SIG CHANGES TO TODAYS GRIDS. BASICALLY TWEAKED TO LATEST
TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

30

------------------------------------------------
435 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER JET OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS ROTATED THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE ARIZONA UPPER LOW AND SHOULD HELP PUSH TO THE LOW TOWARD WESTERN
KANSAS LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY...A MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
IS GRADUALLY REPLACED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH DRIER/SUBSIDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING A DRY AIR INTRUSION. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN RESUME LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INTERACTS WITH
AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OUR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS MORE LIKELY TO ENTER THE
AREA ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
RUC/GFS FOR TODAY AS THE NAM (OPERATIONAL NMM VERSION) APPEARS TO BE
OUT TO LUNCH REGARDING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MODEL MASS FIELDS AFFECTED AND THEREFORE MAKING FURTHER
INTERROGATION VERY DIFFICULT.

BEYOND TODAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS (25%) AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (75%) WHICH HAVE THE LOW DRIFTING TO NEAR ALVA
THURSDAY...PAULS VALLEY FRIDAY...FORT WORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST AND MOST ABUNDANT RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF ITS PATH
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT SHOULD BE LOCATED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE HARD TO SAY...BUT STILL ESTIMATING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LEAST OVER EXTREME
WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER
EAST. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCH...BUT TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING AND THUS PREFER TO
ADDRESS A WATCH ON A SHORT TERM BASIS WHEN MORE EVIDENCE EXISTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  69  84  68 /  30  60  50  50
HOBART OK         92  68  86  68 /  30  70  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  70  89  69 /  20  40  50  40
GAGE OK           88  64  82  66 /  40  90  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  82  68 /  50  60  50  50
DURANT OK         92  70  85  70 /  40  20  50  50

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO
STILLWATER... TO SULPHUR... TO MARIETTA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALSO
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER EVENTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA... SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT MIDDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACTS WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... WITH THE
DEVELOP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET... WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING... IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AS A RESULT OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

OKZ019-131330-
LOGAN OK-
815 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOGAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUTHRIE AT 815
AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL... WINDS AROUND 50 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN LOGAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF GUTHRIE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNON                  34.15N 99.28W
06/12/2007                   WILBARGER          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN, SEVERAL OTHER TREES WITH
            DAMAGE/LIMBS DOWN, WINDOWS IN STORES BLOWN OUT, ONE
            RESIDENCE AWNING BLOWN OVER HOUSE.

&&

JLP

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