Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

March 20, 2007Ellis County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 20, 2007, 3:43 AM CDT for Ellis County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 20, 2007, 3:43 AM CDT (08:43 UTC)
Expired: Mar 20, 2007, 4:15 AM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Ellis County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 20, 3:32 AM CDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 20, 3:32 AM CDT, 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER... CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
ISSUANCE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO DAYS 1 THROUGH 3.

THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST OVERALL REPRESENTATION OF THE
EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND IT WAS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED FOR MOST FEATURES. THE STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT/MIX NORTH TODAY... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST AND WARM
AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF A BIT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM... BUT WILL RISE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES BACK TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE
TIME PERIOD OF PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  61  73  61 /  40  10  10  40
HOBART OK         69  61  73  59 /  30  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  61  76  61 /  20  10  10  40
GAGE OK           70  60  77  57 /  40  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     66  61  73  59 /  70  20  20  40
DURANT OK         73  60  74  60 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/09

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 19, 12:00 PM CDT, 15 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... BEFORE STALLING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL WORK TO SUPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP MAY WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AID LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 CDT TUESDAY MAR 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON
THURSDAY... AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK... AND MAY
FALL ON GROUND THAT WILL ALREADY BE WET FROM EARLIER RAINS.  SOME
FLOODING MAY OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

CMS/II

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 20, 1:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 20, 1:32 AM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 20, 2:28 AM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 20, 2:38 AM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 20, 2:44 AM CDT, 59 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 20, 2:45 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 19, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Noble	38 min
Mar 19, 10:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Kay	38 min
Mar 19, 11:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Noble	48 min
Mar 19, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Kay	45 min
Mar 20, 12:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Noble	3 hr
Mar 20, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Noble	34 min
Mar 20, 3:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Ellis	40 min
Mar 20, 4:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Dewey	41 min
Mar 20, 4:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	39 min
Mar 20, 5:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine	52 min
Mar 20, 6:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Roger Mills	26 min
Mar 20, 7:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Woodward	41 min
Mar 20, 7:41 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Kay	3 hr
Mar 20, 8:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Woodward	44 min
Mar 20, 10:41 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Kay	2 hr
Mar 20, 12:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Kay	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.