Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.UPDATE...
AFTER AN INTIAL RUN OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
MOST OF THE MORE RECENT ACTIVITY HAS MANAGED TO STAY JUST TO THE
WEST OF CWA... IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. A SLOWLY NORTHWEST
ADVANCING WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT IN THAT REGION HAS CONTINUED
TO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE... AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS OUT
OVERNIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD SHIFT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST... AND INTO THE CWA...
LATER TONIGHT. WE REDUCED POPS IN ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE LATE NIGHT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH EXPECTED EVOLUTION
FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS... AND MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  72  58  76 /  50  70  30  40
HOBART OK         65  72  57  78 /  60  60  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  75  62  79 /  40  70  60  40
GAGE OK           56  74  50  79 /  90  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     64  72  54  75 /  60  70  20  30
DURANT OK         69  79  63  79 /  20  70  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
731 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO ARNETT. THE
SLIGHT RISK BORDERS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
AS FAR AS MANGUM...WATONGA...AND BLACKWELL.

TIMING...
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS WERE ONGOING THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR A SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS
REGION OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING
OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH 2 AM. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS...BUT STORM
MERGERS WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITATION STORMS...WITH VERY FEW
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. ANY STORM THAT CAN REMAIN ISOLATED OR LONG
LIVED WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
ALL OTHER STORMS WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.

AFTER 2 AM...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...CAUSING THE FRONTAL ZONE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. A MULTICELL COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AROUND 7 AM
THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A MODERATELY STRONG CAP WILL PREVENT STORMS IN MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM AHEAD IN THIS REGION IF THE LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THE CAP. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...65 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE GROUND REMAINS CLOSE TO
SATURATED FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS SPRING...MEANING LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT...AIDED
BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...PUSHES SOUTHWARD. WEAKENING SHEAR WILL
LIKELY LESSEN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
NORTH TEXAS THEN MOVES BACK NORTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

BURKE

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