Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER WEST TX WILL CONT TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS N TX
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH THE RED
RIVER/MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OK TO BE SEVERE... WITH MAINLY HAIL.
THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THAT PART OF THE STATE
WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE... MOIST NEAR SFC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINE AT THIS POINT... BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED INTO THU BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. NAM CONT TO SHOW
A STRONGER BOUNDARY WITH STRONG N WINDS AND FALLING AFTN TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK. WILL
CONT TO HOLD OFF ON BITING ON GFS SCENARIO OF AREA OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. NAM SEEMS A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AS IT PUSHES FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAT IF ACTIVITY
DOES DEVELOP THAT IS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

COOLER TEMPS BEHIND FRONT FOR FRI INTO SAT BEFORE WARMING TREND INTO
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL INTRO SOME LOW POPS FOR
DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  78  53  75 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         50  77  50  74 /  20   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  81  54  80 /  40  10  10  20
GAGE OK           46  80  44  57 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  78  50  61 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         57  78  57  80 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
334 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MANGUM TO PAULS VALLEY... TO
ATOKA... IMCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER
VEGETATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LARGE HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 60 DEGREES.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 CDT WEDNESDAY MAR 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE... WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
TEXAS. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 14.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

OKZ045-050-132100-
LOVE OK-JEFFERSON OK-
340 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SUGDEN TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURNEYVILLE AT 340 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

OKZ045-046-050-132130-
LOVE OK-JEFFERSON OK-CARTER OK-
405 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES WEST OF
CORNISH TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OVERBROOK AT 405 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

CJS

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