Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO HAS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
CONDUCIVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY SMALL
DISTURBANCES THAT EMANATE FROM IT.

WILL FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MIDWEEK REGARDING ITS
TRACK...WHICH HAS THE LOW REACHING ABOUT ABILENE/MIDLAND BY EARLY
MONDAY...THEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...BEFORE FINALLY RECEIVING A SIGNIFICANT PUSH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ITS
NORTH. AS THE LOW TRACK ACROSS TEXAS...THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF
MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE WITH GRADUALLY LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN AND
LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT
NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS RETREATED NORTHWARD WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES NEAR GRAHAM TEXAS. NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S. STORMS ARE QUICKLY FORMING HOWEVER...WITHIN THE HIGHER
THETA E AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT WEST OF SEYMOUR AND
THROCKMORTON...AND WE THINK THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
THESE STORMS EXPAND/INTENSIFY IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS/ARCHER CITY/HENRIETTA...EASTWARD ALONG BOTH
SIDES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY NOT VERY HIGH WITH
MLCAPES OF 250-1000 J/KJ BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KTS. ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND SEEM MOST LIKELY...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
NEARING 30 DEGREES NEAR OUR TEXAS COUNTIES...AND THERE IS AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CAREFULLY...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE AN ORGANIZED
COMPLEX EVOLVE.

RAIN MAY ALSO BE ABUNDANT OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST QPF EXPECTED ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND WITHIN THE
HIGHER SOURCE OF MOISTURE. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN BUT BELIEVE THE AREA CAN WITHSTAND MUCH MORE AS RAIN IS NEEDED
AND SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF
PER HOUR.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BUT WILL SLOW THE WARMUP JUST A TAD FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGES ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A WET
GROUND AND GROWING VEGETATION ARE EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  66  55  70 /  90  50  30  40
HOBART OK         51  64  54  69 /  80  60  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  66  57  71 / 100  60  40  40
GAGE OK           46  67  52  73 /  40  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     48  68  52  70 /  60  20  20  20
DURANT OK         57  65  59  70 / 100  60  40  50

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
515 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR
JACKSBORO...NORTHWARD TO NEAR HENRIETTA...OVER TO AROUND
MARIETTA...THEN BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD SHERMAN AND DENISON. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE ITS IDENTITY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A STRONG UPPER-ATMOSPHERIC STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS WILL JUST PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND SMALLER.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAR 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 25 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED... THE PROLONGED
DURATION OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER-ATMOSPHERIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON
MONDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

OKZ044-112145-
COTTON OK-
433 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE AT 433 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COTTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

OKZ044-045-112200-
COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-
445 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COTTON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES.

AT 445 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE
COTTON...JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. AREAS
BETWEEN TEMPLE AND HASTINGS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. DIME SIZE
HAIL IS LIKELY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COTTON AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

OKZ046-112230-
CARTER OK-
513 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF LONE GROVE AT 513
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY AND STORM
INTENSITY IS INCREASING.

PEOPLE IN CARTER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ARDMORE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

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