Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

.UPDATE...
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK ARE BEGINNING TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH SHOWING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND NAM INDICATE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

ELSEWHERE... WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING... IF TEMPS AND RHS MEET CRITERIA. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR 75 DEGREES IN MOST OF THAT AREA. MEANWHILE... THE CURRENT
FORECAST... BASED ON THE OVERNIGHT NAM... HAS DEWPOINTS RISING
SUFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP HUMIDITIES JUST ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM RUN ALSO AGREES...
HOWEVER... THE RUC KEEPS DEWPOINTS LOWER AND THUS REACHING RED
FLAG CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL WATCH TJE DEWPOINT
TREND FOR A BIT LONGER... BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TODAYS WINDS AND RELATED
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. WINDS QUITE STRONG OFF OF THE DECK THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING AS LOWER-LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
CLOSER TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHEST WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR. THE NORMALLY
WINDIER /TERRAIN INDUCED/ LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF 40+MPH GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDIER
LOCATIONS TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 40 MPH...BELOW THRESHOLDS WE
WOULD CONSIDER FOR ADVISORIES. IF WINDS ARE STRONGER...NEXT SHIFT
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS NEEDED.

AS FAR AS THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS. CURRENT FORECAST RESULTS IN
MARGINAL OR JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WE WILL HANDLE SITUATION WITH MY
MENTION OF IT HERE...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OUR
WEB PAGE GRAPHICS. AGAIN...A SHORT-TERM MONITORING TASK TODAY.

WAS A LITTLE PERPLEXED BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS WITH
RESPECT TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY UPPER SYSTEM. NAM WAS KEEPING MORE
ENERGY FARTHER WEST AND CONSOLIDATED...RESULTING IN BACKED FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. KEPT FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY
GFS SOLUTION...AND GIVEN 06Z NAM OUTPUT...EVEN MORE CONFIDENT IN
GFS SOLUTION. LATEST RUN OF NAM TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO GFS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BY SHEARING OUT UPPER SYSTEM WITH VEERED/DRYING FLOW AND
WEAKER FORCING.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH SYSTEM SCHEDULED FOR LATE
WEEK...A RESULT OF A PROGD STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
ACROSS GULF OF ALASKA. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN EACH MODEL RUN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
TWEAK FORECAST TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE WHICH
APPEARS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING GRIDDED FORECASTS. MUCH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF KICKER SYSTEM WHICH GFS
INTENSIFIES AND BRINGS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SITUATION SATURDAY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. FROM A HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE...PROGD 500MB TEMPS NEAR -30C TRAVERSING AREA WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ESTABLISHED COULD PROVIDE FOR AN
INTERESTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WRT COLD- CORE CONVECTION AND EVEN SNOW. WILL LEAVE SNOW
MENTIONED CONFINED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO MENTION CHANGE OVER EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  43  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         71  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           72  33  59  31 /   0  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  37  57  32 /   0  10   0   0
DURANT OK         67  50  72  45 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-
     011>013-015>020-022>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

32/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
645 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A COOL... DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY FEB 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ON EAST
WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS... LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

30