Alert archive / Connecticut / Winter Storm Warnings in 2007
Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this winter storm warning at Dec 12, 2007, 3:51 PM EST for Passaic County, New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut; Rockland County, Westchester County, New York. It took effect at Dec 13, 2007, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 10 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 12, 2007, 3:51 PM EST (20:51 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 13, 2007, 10:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 13, 2007, 8:09 PM EST
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Passaic County, NJ, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 539 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 89 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS41 KOKX 122051 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 351 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS... .COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY MORNING...THEN RE-DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CONNECTICUT... WHILE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-130600- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0006.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HS.W.0002.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 351 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON....TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCHES...AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES BY THE TIME THE STORM ENDS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ069>071-130600- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0006.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 351 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...NEARER TO THE COAST. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF SLEET WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ005-130600- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ ESSEX- 351 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...NEARER TO THE COAST. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF SLEET WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ006-011-NYZ072>081-130600- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 351 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MIX BACK WITH SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES... WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM NEW YORK CITY WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ MPS
5 follow-up statements
000 WWUS41 KOKX 130407 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1107 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS... .COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY MORNING...THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CONNECTICUT... WHILE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-131100- /O.CON.KOKX.HS.W.0002.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 1107 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON....TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCHES...AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES BY THE TIME THE STORM ENDS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>005-NYZ069>071-131100- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1107 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...NEARER TO THE COAST. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF SLEET WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ006-011-NYZ072>081-131100- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 1107 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MIX BACK WITH SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES... WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM NEW YORK CITY WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KOKX 130923 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 423 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT TRI-STATE AREA WITH HEAVY SNOW INLAND AND A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST... .POLAR HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OVERSPREADING THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT...WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL RECEIVE A WINTRY MIX. NJZ005-131730- /O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0003.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ ESSEX- 423 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ESSEX COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-131730- /O.CON.KOKX.HS.W.0002.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 423 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT LATE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENDING THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ069>071-131730- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 423 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT LATE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ELSEWHERE DUE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ006-011-NYZ072>081-131730- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.071213T1500Z-071214T0400Z/ HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 423 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AWAY FROM NEW YORK CITY AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KOKX 131724 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1224 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH HEAVY SNOW INLAND AND A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST... .POLAR HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT...WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL RECEIVE A WINTRY MIX. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-140130- /O.CON.KOKX.HS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 1224 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ069>071-140130- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1224 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ELSEWHERE DUE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072>081-140130- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 1224 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRONX AND ESSEX COUNTIES. A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO ANY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KOKX 132140 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 440 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW INLAND AND A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL PRIMARILY CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL RECEIVE A WINTRY MIX. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-140400- /O.CON.KOKX.HS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 440 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE EVENING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET...WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS EVENING. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ069>071-140400- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 440 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO MAINLY MIXED PRECIPITATION. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$ NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072>081-140400- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 440 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING AS A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KOKX 140109 WSWOKX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 809 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED... .PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY POCKETS OF LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE ARE NOT EXPECTED. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-140215- /O.CAN.KOKX.HS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 809 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ CTZ009>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ069>071-140215- /O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 809 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OF ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072>081-140215- /O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0400Z/ ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 809 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OF ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ MPS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 12, 12:53 PM EST, 2 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 12:53 PM EST, 2 hours 58 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1253 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THURSDAY EVENING...TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TO A POSITION JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CT ACROSS NYC AND NORTHERN NJ
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY SHOWERS OUT THERE
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MINIMAL QPF AMOUNTS. HIGHS
TODAY WERE BUMPED UP BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AS LATEST HOURLY
READINGS WERE ALREADY HIGHER THAN THE FCST HIGH...BUT TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE 40S AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A DEEP-
LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
WELL INLAND...INCLUDING THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LONG ISLAND...TO
THE LOWERS 30S IN METRO NY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK
WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FORM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THU WILL
HAVE LAID DOWN THE FOUNDATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL EMERGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THU MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A WAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A
MIX OF WINTRY PCPN ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BY MID MORNING. INLAND
AREAS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW...WHILE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
AT THE COAST AND NYC SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE COLDER...FARTHER SOUTH...AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW COMING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED
SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE QPF ON THE GFS AND A SECONDARY MAXIMA OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SEEMS LESS LIKELY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PCPN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND
SREF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE OVER AMPLIFIED THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH...
CREATING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AT 700 MB WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE INTERIOR ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH.
PCPN ENDS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT...AND INTERIOR NE NJ FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW. SHOULD THE FORECAST FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND REMAIN ON TRACK...AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AT LEAST PC
SKIES...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW ZONES. NW FLOW MAY CARRY A SNOW SHOWER
OR TWO INTO ORANGE/ROCKLAND/PUTNAM COUNTIES BUT WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. PRETTY MUCH ALL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY SECONDARY
COLD SURGE INDICATED AFTER 18Z FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING. HIGH CIRRUS SUGGESTED IN MODEL RH FIELDS SO LEFT SOME PC
SKIES IN THRU SATURDAY AM. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS NEAR
20 N AND W OF THE COAST...AND MID 20S IN THE CITY.
WAA CLOUDS ARRIVE QUICKLY MID MORNING SAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM. GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO BE SLOW WITH
ONSET OF WAA PRECIP...INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS BY 18Z SAT WITH PTYPE
MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CERTAINTY OF A POTENT WINTER STORM FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK AND RELATIVE
DEGREE OF STRENGTH (WHILE IT WILL BE A DEEP...POWERFUL LOW...THE
EXACT STRENGTH STILL IS AN OPEN QUESTION). AS A RESULT OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY...P-TYPE ISSUES STILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH AND EASTWARD
WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN...SO TRENDED THINGS
COLDER...REFLECTING AN INCREASE IN CERTAINTY THAT INLAND AREAS COULD
END UP SEEING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT (BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE ON SUNDAY).
THE ABOVE REFLECTS A BLEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFES MEAN FOR THE
LOW TRACK...WITH GFS BEING THE FURTHEST N AND SO NOT FAVORED NOTING
OVERALL MODEL TREND. ALSO GFES LAST NIGHT WAS ALSO SHOWING A TRACK S
OF LONG ISLAND...SO DEFINITELY WANTED TO SHIFT THINGS IN THAT
DIRECTION.
STILL APPEARS LOW WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR
TO CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN OVER MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
COASTAL CT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
DONE BY THIS TIME...SO EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
DECENT SNOWFALL IS INCREASING (BUT STILL NOT AS HIGH A PROBABILITY
AS FOR INLAND AREAS). REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT WILL
BE WINDY THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE STORM PASSES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD AND DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM CANADA ON
BLUSTERY NW WINDS...SO CONTINUED TREND OF LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SYSTEM. APPEARS THAT HIGHS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...MAKING THIS MORE THAN LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON TO DATE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT..AS SUSTAINED WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-8
KT.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES INTO THE REGION AROUND 10-12Z ON THURSDAY AS
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS WINTRY CONDITIONS ENTER THE
TERMINALS. CIGS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND IFR BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH
LIGHT SNOW STARTING AROUND 15Z (14Z AT KSWF).
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH SUN...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN WINTRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. PTYPE EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW AT FIRST...BUT PERIODS OF
SLEET ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC/NRN NJ/CT TERMINALS. GUSTY NW FLOW
EXPECTED BY FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HEAVY IMPACT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
E-NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG SLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 44017. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS UP UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE EASTERNMOST ZONE...
MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT UP UNTIL 06Z THU. WIND GUSTS LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE SOUND...HARBOR AND BAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL COME CLOSE TO MEETING SCA CRITERIA.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FRI AND FRI NIGHT OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS. MAY BE A LOW END SCA EVENT FRI NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL LOW.
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY IT
IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS STORM FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COULD SEE AROUND 0.5-0.9 INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
(THOUGH CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY LIKELY WILL SEE ALL IN FORM OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET). EXPECT
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND LOWER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE STORM SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1-2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE
REGION. INTERIOR AREAS SEEM MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE ALL SNOW...SO
MINIMAL IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE.
HOWEVER...OVER THE MORE URBANIZED COASTAL AREAS...THERE STILL IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXING WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN...IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN URBAN FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ002>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 12, 6:49 AM EST, 9 hours 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 649 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 CTZ005>012-NJZ002>004-NYZ067>071-131200- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN- EASTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 649 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND HIGH WINDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SOUND. STAY TUNED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072>081-131200- ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 649 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE BY THURSDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO SLEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY ALSO MIX IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK CITY...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY...EAST INTO CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND LONG ISLAND SOUND COASTS...INCLUDING THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. STAY TUNED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-131200- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 649 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND HIGH WINDS AND SEAS. STAY TUNED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 4:20 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | OKX | Passaic | 12 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:51 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | OKX | Hudson | 28 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:51 PM EST | Heavy Snow Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 28 hr |
| Dec 12, 6:13 AM EST | Marine Weather Statement | OKX | 4 days |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Connecticut, 2007Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2007Winter Storm Warnings in New Jersey, 2007Every winter storm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.