Alert archive / Connecticut / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS New York, NY

July 15, 2007Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS New York, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2007, 4:44 PM EDT for Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Connecticut. It was in force for 20 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2007, 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2007, 5:04 PM EDT
In force
20 min
Issued by
NWS New York, NY
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 15, 12:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2007-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 135 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2007-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
135 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 4:13 PM EDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 4:13 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 12:53 PM EDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NJZ003>006-011-NYZ071>081-161700-
BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL SHOULD NOT NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-161700-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NJZ002-NYZ067>070-161700-
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

CTZ005>012-161700-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
1253 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

JST

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 11:43 AM EDT, 5 hours 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1143 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-160000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1143 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COLLIDES WITH A VERY WARM...
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
CONNECTICUT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS NEW YORK CITY...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TOWARD EVENING.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON...STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL
HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO...OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC
FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GOODMAN
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 2:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
231 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NYZ067-151915-
NORTHERN ORANGE-
231 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OTISVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORT
JERVIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR MIDDLETOWN BY 235 PM.
  NEAR MONTGOMERY BY 245 PM.
  NEAR WALDEN BY 250 PM.
  NEAR GARDNERTOWN BY 255 PM.
  6 MILES NORTH OF NEWBURGH BY 300 PM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
OTISVILLE...MIDDLETOWN...MONTGOMERY...WALDEN AND GARDNERTOWN...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

GOODMAN
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

CTZ005-NYZ068-152030-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-PUTNAM-
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY TOWARD NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FISHKILL...OR NEAR BEACON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR SHERMAN BY 355 PM.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GOODMAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 15, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXOrange24 min
Jul 15, 3:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXOrange52 min
Jul 15, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Connecticut, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.